HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

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[HFM]

Date: 25th June 2024.

Kenya in Turmoil: Youth-Led Protests Shake Economy as Shilling Falls
 

 

Impact on the Kenyan Shilling (KES)

Earlier today, lawmakers in Kenya passed the bill increasing taxes, which now awaits President William Ruto’s assent. The planned tax increases aim to generate an additional $2.3 billion in revenue in the upcoming fiscal year. Ruto intends to reduce the budget deficit from 5.7% of GDP in the current financial year to 3.3% of GDP in the next, as part of efforts to improve Kenya’s fiscal position and comply with an IMF program that requires Nairobi to increase revenue.

The recent youth-led protests against the Kenyan government’s proposed tax increases have had a notable impact on the Kenyan shilling (KES), which has depreciated against the US Dollar. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) previously reported that the shilling had appreciated against the Dollar more than almost any other currency in 2024. However, following the news of police and protester violence, the shilling slipped from trading at approximately $0.0077 to the Dollar.
 

 

Background on the Finance Bill

A finance bill is typically presented to parliament before the start of the financial year, which runs from July to June, outlining the government’s fiscal plans. In the 2024/25 bill, the Kenyan government aims to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes to reduce the budget deficit and state borrowing. Kenya’s public debt currently stands at 68% of GDP, surpassing the 55% of GDP recommended by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Facing severe liquidity challenges and uncertainty about its ability to access capital from financial markets, Kenya has turned to the IMF, which has urged the government to meet revenue targets to secure further funding.

Protesters are demanding the government abandon the planned tax hikes, arguing that they will stifle the economy and increase the cost of living for Kenyans already struggling financially. This resistance is not unprecedented; last year, the government of President William Ruto, elected in 2022 on a promise to improve the lives of the poor, introduced a housing tax and raised the top personal income tax rate through the finance bill, triggering anger, street protests, and legal challenges.

Proposed Tax Measures

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The proposed tax measures causing unrest include new levies on basic commodities such as bread, vegetable oil, and sugar, and a new motor vehicle circulation tax of 2.5% of a car’s value to be paid annually. An “eco levy” on most manufactured goods, including sanitary towels and diapers, is also proposed. Additionally, the bill seeks to increase existing taxes on financial transactions. The government argues that these tax measures are necessary to fund development programs and reduce public debt.

The government had earlier withdrawn several of the most controversial measures, such as a tax on bread and cooking oil, but this did not assuage people’s anger. The finance ministry has stated that these concessions would create a 200 billion Kenyan shilling ($1.56 billion) shortfall in the 2024/25 budget, necessitating spending cuts. Despite these concessions, protesters and opposition parties argue they are insufficient and call for the entire bill to be abandoned.

The Protests

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President Ruto has acknowledged the youth-led protests and pledged to engage in dialogue to address their concerns, though the timing of such discussions remains unclear. It is also uncertain whether the protests will intensify if parliament passes the bill. The social media-driven protests lack clear leadership, but many young people have vowed to continue demonstrating. Some protesters cite the arrest of at least two activists since Ruto’s offer of talks as evidence of the government’s lack of goodwill.

The government claims that the withdrawal of some tax proposals demonstrates its willingness to compromise. Nevertheless, police have attempted to disperse predominantly young protesters chanting “Ruto must go!” amidst growing anger over the government’s plan to raise more than $2 billion in new taxes to address the country’s substantial budget deficit.

The demonstrations began a week ago in Nairobi and have since spread to other cities in the country of 54 million people. They are led mostly by young Kenyans, many of whom organized via social media and livestreamed demonstrations on TikTok, Instagram, and other platforms. The protesters are demanding that the government of Kenyan President William Ruto withdraw the bill that would introduce major tax increases, arguing that the measures are hurting ordinary Kenyans already grappling with rising prices for everyday essentials.

The human rights commission has reported that security forces have “abducted” prominent critics of the tax proposals, seizing many from their homes under cover of darkness. Treasury Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u has warned that failing to implement the tax increases could create a $1.5 billion hole in the budget. The government has indicated it would be forced to cut spending, including slashing support for a school food program and the loss-making flag carrier Kenya Airways if the bill fails.

Following initial protests last Tuesday, when the bill was tabled in parliament for debate, the government promised to withdraw planned taxes on bread, cooking oil, locally made diapers, and other products. However, by Thursday, the protests had spread to almost half of Kenya’s 47 counties. Protesters are calling for a “total shutdown” of the country and demanding that Ruto completely drop the finance bill.

Interest payments on Kenya’s debt consume nearly 38% of revenues, according to the World Bank. In January, the IMF provided Kenya with an additional $941 million loan as part of a $3.9 billion bailout that began in 2021.

Multilateral lenders are willing to continue extending credit to Kenya, provided it maintains fiscal consolidation and increases revenue collection.

What comes next?

With the bill now approved, the president has the option to either enact it within 14 days or return it to parliament with suggested amendments. The government might also consider alternative strategies to alleviate tensions, such as postponing the bill, though this is improbable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th June 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Follow US Gains, Inflation Pressures Rise in Australia.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Australia’s CPI surged to 4% in May, up from 3.6% in April, complicating the central bank’s plans for rate cuts. This increase was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs.
• European stocks followed the upward trend after a volatile Asian session and a rally in US session overnight, with markets awaiting new trading catalysts.
• China’s central bank once again loosened its grip on the Yuan as the currency traded near the lower end of its fixed daily trading band. A Bloomberg survey indicated that China’s export outlook is set to improve, supporting growth in the world’s second-largest economy despite slowing consumer spending.
• Treasuries lost ground with yields ending a few basis points higher as hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bowman combined with risk-on flows into the NASDAQ and a slightly better than expected confidence report weighed on bonds.
• Investors are likely to continue investing in US stocks at any sign of a pullback as the Fed moves closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which expects the easing cycle to begin early next year.

Asian & European Open:

• Asia stock indices rose, while Australian stocks declined. US stock futures edged higher in Asia, bolstered by a rebound in Nvidia shares.
• The bounce in Nvidia after its 3-day rout helped lift tech and in turn the NASDAQ and the S&P500. Nvidia climbed 6.8%,following a $430 billion sell-off. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.26% gain, while the S&P 500 was 0.39% in the green. The Dow dropped -0.76% with a -2.67% plunge in materials leading a broadbased decline.
• Rivian Automotive Inc. surged as Volkswagen AG announced a $5 billion investment to form a joint venture with the electric-vehicle maker.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex firmed but off its 105.78 peak.
• USDJPY held just below the critical 160 per Dollar level, raising concerns about possible market intervention.
• The AUD strengthened to 0.6688 due to faster-than-expected inflation data.
• USOIL held a decline following an industry report indicating a small increase in US crude inventories ahead of official government data.
• Copper fell to its lowest level in over 2 months due to sustained pressure from weak Chinese demand. Gold remained largely unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th June 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Follow US Gains, Inflation Pressures Rise in Australia.
 

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Australia’s CPI surged to 4% in May, up from 3.6% in April, complicating the central bank’s plans for rate cuts. This increase was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs.
• European stocks followed the upward trend after a volatile Asian session and a rally in US session overnight, with markets awaiting new trading catalysts.
• China’s central bank once again loosened its grip on the Yuan as the currency traded near the lower end of its fixed daily trading band. A Bloomberg survey indicated that China’s export outlook is set to improve, supporting growth in the world’s second-largest economy despite slowing consumer spending.
• Treasuries lost ground with yields ending a few basis points higher as hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bowman combined with risk-on flows into the NASDAQ and a slightly better than expected confidence report weighed on bonds.
• Investors are likely to continue investing in US stocks at any sign of a pullback as the Fed moves closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which expects the easing cycle to begin early next year.

Asian & European Open:

• Asia stock indices rose, while Australian stocks declined. US stock futures edged higher in Asia, bolstered by a rebound in Nvidia shares.
• The bounce in Nvidia after its 3-day rout helped lift tech and in turn the NASDAQ and the S&P500. Nvidia climbed 6.8%,following a $430 billion sell-off. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.26% gain, while the S&P 500 was 0.39% in the green. The Dow dropped -0.76% with a -2.67% plunge in materials leading a broadbased decline.
• Rivian Automotive Inc. surged as Volkswagen AG announced a $5 billion investment to form a joint venture with the electric-vehicle maker.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex firmed but off its 105.78 peak.
• USDJPY held just below the critical 160 per Dollar level, raising concerns about possible market intervention.
• The AUD strengthened to 0.6688 due to faster-than-expected inflation data.
• USOIL held a decline following an industry report indicating a small increase in US crude inventories ahead of official government data.
• Copper fell to its lowest level in over 2 months due to sustained pressure from weak Chinese demand. Gold remained largely unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 27th June 2024.

Market News – Asian Declines, Tech Sector Losses and Anticipation for PCE.
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Several events are on the calendar which are keeping a cautious tone in the markets:

• Although tonight’s presidential debate is much anticipated, it’s unlikely to impact the markets as it won’t provide any real clues on fiscal or monetary policy.
• Asian shares decline, with US futures amid ongoing losses in the tech sector. Friday’s PCE chain price report has Treasury bulls sidelined for now and the run up in yields is tempering activity on Wall Street. Though expectations are for a benign report, upside surprises in Australia and Canadian CPI are generating some concerns.
• Chinese stocks are headed for a technical correction. The earlier rally that pushed Chinese equities into bull markets this year has been losing momentum due to ongoing concerns about an uneven economic recovery. Investors are now focusing on the Third Plenum, the July meeting historically known for significant economic policy announcements by the Communist Party.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street rallied with all three major indexes finishing in the green. A bounce in tech boosted the NASDAQ 0.49%, back to 17,805. The S&P500 was up 0.16% and the Dow edged up 0.04%.
• Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook fell short of the highest forecasts, denting giant tech companies in late Wall Street trading.
• Asian equities declined on Thursday, with Hong Kong experiencing the largest losses as Chinese tech companies and property developers listed in the city fell. Significant contributors to the drop included electric vehicle maker BYD, travel agency Trip.com, and Tencent.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex was a big winner, climbing to a session peak of 106.130 before closing at 106.079, the highest since late April.
• A surge in USDJPY to 160.79, the highest since 1986, supported. Today the Yen recovered by 0.3% against the Dollar, to 160.29.
• Gold and USOIL prices declined, in part on the firmer Dollar. Bullion fell -0.49% to $2298 per ounce and USOIL slipped -0.2% to $80.36 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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[HFM]

Date: 1st July 2024.

French Elections Spark Risk Rally as Far-Right Falls Short!

• Projections show France’s Far Right Party will lead the first round of parliamentary elections.
• The Euro is the day’s best performing currency, increasing in value by more than 0.40%.
• European Indices soar! The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.85% and the DAX 1.00%.
• Investors turn their attention to today’s German Inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to rise 0.2%.

FRA40 (CAC 40) – French Elections Trigger Volatility And “Bottom Fishing”!

By the market close on Friday, the French CAC was almost at its lowest level for 2024. Since Sunday’s elections, all European indices have risen and the French CAC trades 2.65%. Investors have bought the dip triggering a large price gap and a significantly higher price. Nonetheless, the price remains 7.00% lower than the index’s all-time high. The price is being influenced by three major factors; the upcoming earnings data, higher appetite towards stocks and of course the French elections.



Following an exceptionally high voter turnout, the National Rally is leading with 34% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front is in second place with 28%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Alliance has dropped to a disappointing third place with 20%, according to initial estimates. Although the National Rally seems poised to secure the most seats, France could be facing a hung parliament and increased political uncertainty. Even so, technical analysis signals a possible correction upwards, and the market is showing a clear “risk-on” sentiment. The higher risk appetite is due to the far right failing to win a majority. Bottom fishing refer to investors buying the bottom!

The risk-on sentiment can be seen across the global stock market. All European and US indices are increasing on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 has risen 1.85%, the DAX 1.00%, the SNP500 0.35% and the NASDAQ 0.40%. Some Asian stocks also continue to rise. Lastly, the VIX index trades 1.59% lower which also indicates a higher risk appetite.

In terms of technical analysis, the CAC40 is attempting to establish itself above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 on the RSI. On smaller timeframes, the momentum is also forming bullish crossovers further indicating an increase. The only concern for investors is the resistance level at 7,729.48, which pressured the index last week. If the price forms a breakout above this level, the index will likely see buy signals strengthen. If the price retraces to 7,614.55, traders have the opportunity to trade the upcoming breakout. However, if the price falls below this level, the buy signal will no longer be valid for the time being.
 

---

EURUSD – Investors Turn Their Attention To The German Inflation Reading!

The EURUSD continues to trade higher with strong momentum and has broken through the most recent resistance levels. The Euro is the day’s best performing currency with the index trading 0.40% higher, while the US Dollar is the worst performing. The US Dollar Index is trading 0.35% lower today so far.

However, investors should be cautious about the price action seen so far as volatility can quickly change after today’s German inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to read 0.2%, slightly higher than the previous month. If the inflation reading is lower, the Euro potentially can come under selling pressure. In June, the number of unemployed in Germany rose by 19,000, surpassing the forecast of 14,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 6.0% instead of the expected 5.9%. Experts highlight the weakness of the German labor market, noting that companies remain cautious about hiring new employees, which negatively impacts the country’s economy. However, today’s inflation data will be the main driver along with the French elections and a potential hung parliament.



Technical analysis points towards buyers controlling the market and the exchange rate yet to obtain an “overbought” price. Currently, the RSI trades at 73.00 which means the price can rise a further 0.20% becoming overbought. However, this would depend on momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd July 2024.

A Hawkish ECB Advise No Cut for July! European Stocks Fall!

• European stocks unable to hold onto gains and honour the recent resistance levels.
• German inflation declines back to 2.2% as inflation in June eases more than expectations.
• ECB President Lagarde indicates the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged this month to gather more inflation data.
• Oil prices at a 2-month high due to a rise in geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Caribbean Hurricane.

GER40 – A Hawkish ECB Pressures European Stocks!

The German DAX fell during the European session due to the strong price gap which measures 1.04%. As a result, the index still rose by 0.48% by the end of the US trading session. The index is being supported by two factors: The failure of France’s far-right party to win a majority, which increased risk sentiment, and German inflation which read lower than expectations.



However, the DAX is also slightly under pressure from the ECB President’s comments. Mrs Lagarde said the central bank will pause and not lower rates for the time being. The ECB is looking to obtain 2 months of inflation data before determining whether the risk of inflation is subsiding. If not, further adjustments. This morning, Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB governing council, said the economy is underperforming but the ECB believe it will recover. Philip Lane advises the ECB believes the Eurozone’s inflation will remain at the “mid-twos”. A concern for inflation is the current rise in oil prices which currently is close to a 2-month high and continues to rise in today’s Asian session.

The data supports a further cut in rates, but comments from the ECB don’t correspond with the latest inflation reading. The hawkish comment from the ECB is known to have pressured the DAX, but technical analysis will be key as bullish price movement is still possible. Particularly as German inflation falls back to 2.2%. A key price driver for the day will be the Core CPI Flash Estimates at 09:00 GMT and President Lagarde’s speech at 13:30 GMT.

In terms of technical analysis and signals, the DAX opened on a bearish price gap and has declined a further 0.20%. However, price gaps are normally filled and can trade back into a correction. In addition to this, the price on the 2-hour chart continues to remain above the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. If the price declines below 18,267.31, sell trades can materialize, otherwise, the main signal on the 2-hour chart, remains a bullish trend with large retracements.

EURNZD – The NZD Continues To Be The Worst-Performing Currency!

The best performing currency continues to be the Euro as it was on Monday. The Asian session’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar. On the 2-hour chart, the exchange rate is witnessing strong signals indicating a bullish trend, as seen since June 24th. However, the price on smaller timeframes indicates the asset is about to form a retracement. Therefore, investors should note the volatility despite the clear bullish signals.



At this point, traders can’t use the breakout level or Fibonacci entry points due to the head and shoulders pattern and the significantly higher price. The asset has risen in value for 5 consecutive days regardless of the latest German inflation reading. One of the key drivers for the Euro is the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. However, this can lose its importance if today’s inflation estimates read lower than expectations.

If the inflation estimates are lower than expectations and the Euro declines, a signal for a retracement will be triggered at 1.77083. However, a longer-term downward trend is not yet possible unless the exchange rate gains larger bearish momentum. Whereas, if the Eurozone inflation estimates read more than 2.5% and the EURNZD breaks the 1.77442 level, buy signals are again an option.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd July 2024.

NASDAQ Eyes All-Time High as Employment Data Eases Investor Concerns.

• The JOLTS Job Openings comes in slightly higher than expectations improving investor sentiment.
• The NASDAQ rises 0.88% after the release of the latest US JOLTS Job Openings.
• Federal Reserve chairman advises inflationary data shows sign of inflation “cooling”. Reuter’s SmartEconomics predicts a Consumer Price Index reading of 0.1% for June.
• Investors turn their attention to the latest employment data and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

USA100 – Employment Data Eases Concerns and Pushes The NASDAQ Close To An All-Time High!

The NASDAQ has risen 1.40% this week as market risk appetite improves, and institutions position themselves for the next earnings season. The NASDAQ has now formed a second higher high and a third higher low. For this reason, technical analysts are pointing towards a potential bullish trend, while economists also advise the NASDAQ is likely to perform well in the second half of the year.



The bulls quickly entered the market during yesterday’s trading session due to the positive employment data. Analysts thought the JOLTS Job Openings data would fall to the lowest since COVID lockdowns, but the figure read 180,000 more vacancies. Investors bought the news as the release confirms that the employment sector has become more “balanced”, remaining strong but simultaneously not strong enough to significantly increase salaries and inflation.

Another positive factor is the comments from the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. Mr Jerome Powell, after some persistently high inflation reports at the start of 2024, said that the data over the past 2 months “do suggest we are getting back on a disinflationary path.” However, economists are also noting that oil prices have risen by 8.40% in June 2024. According to economists, if prices remain around $85 per barrel, inflation potentially can become stickier.

However, even if inflation does become stickier, investors will soon start to turn their attention to the upcoming earnings season. Earnings season will start on Friday 12th July, but will gain momentum on the 17th! When monitoring individual components for the NASDAQ, in Tuesday’s session, 75% of the stocks rose in value and 83% of the most influential stocks rose.

The price of the NASDAQ is currently witnessing buy signals with the price trading comfortably above the 75-bar EMA and the Volume Weighted Average Price. Oscillators are also indicating buyers are controlling the market, but technical analysts are closely monitoring to ensure momentum continues. Breakout levels can be seen at $20,036.03 and $20,045.64. The NASDAQ’s all-time high is at $20,128.31.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Gains Momentum, Investors Focus On Upcoming Economic Data!

The price of the EURUSD during the Asian Session trades significantly lower which is primarily being driven by the US Dollar. However, the EURUSD quickly gains bullish momentum as the European session starts. Simultaneously, the Euro is increasing in value against most currencies and is only struggling against the AUD. US Dollar has largely been driven by positive economic data, but investors also should note dovish comments from the Fed can apply pressure.



The price of the US Dollar will mainly be influenced by three economic events. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the ISM Services PMI and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the data reads higher than expectations, the price potentially can rise further.

Currently the EURUSD is trading within a small retracement upwards. Therefore, short term traders will closely monitor when momentum is regained, and a breakout is formed. The closest breakout level currently can be seen at 1.07354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[Betseyapele]

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Incorporate e-scooters into your daily commute to boost mobility, lessening the time spent in traffic. A natural fit for public transportation!
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[Betseyapele]

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[Betseyapele]

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[Betseyapele]

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[Betseyapele]

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[Betseyapele]

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[HFM]

Date: 4th July 2024.

Gold and Stocks Rise As Markets Increase Rate Cut Bets For September!

• The NASDAQ and SNP500 increase to new all-time highs despite economic and employment data reading lower than expectations.
• The FOMC continues the previous verbal trend set by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, advising inflation needs to decline further.
• The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility.
• Gold quickly increases as an interest rate cut looks more likely for September.

USA100 – Bad News is Good News for the NASDAQ!

This week, the NASDAQ is the second best-performing index behind the NIKKEI225. The NASDAQ is now trading at its highest price ever and has added more than 23% in 2024. The price is being driven by investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates in September. As a result, the stock has become more attractive and consumer demand potentially can improve.



This week so far, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the chairman of the Federal Reserve have indicated that inflation is on the right path. However, the Federal Reserve will need inflation to continue to decline between now and September’s Rate decision. Even with just a 0.1% monthly decline, which would reduce inflation to 3.00%, market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve will still alter its policy!

The latest data also supports the possibility of frailty within the US economy and growth. The ISM Services PMI fell to its lowest in 2024, the weekly unemployment claims again read higher and the ADP Employment Change fell short. However, the JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations. Therefore, the data pressures the Fed that the economy will soon need support, but simultaneously does not cause panic amongst investors. At the moment, bad news continues to be good news for the stock market. However, the question is if this will continue when tomorrow’s NFP data is released.

Many believe the trend will continue regarding “bad news is good news”. However, most also believe that the ideal release would be slightly poorer than expectations. Analysts currently believe the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.00%, the NFP to add 194,000 new individuals and for salaries to rise 0.3%. Volatility throughout today may be muted due to the US bank holiday, however, volatility potentially can quickly rise as Asian Market’s reopen tomorrow morning!

A positive factor for the NASDAQ continues to be the upcoming earnings data, but also hopes that tensions in the Middle East may subside. Reports confirm that Israel and Hamas may be close to an agreement which will stop the current war, even if only temporarily. If an agreement is reached, the news will be deemed as positive for the stock market and can reduce oil prices. Oil prices this morning have so far fallen 0.35%!

XAUUSD – Gold Benefits From Rate Cute Bets!

Gold’s price rose as the US Dollar became less attractive to investors due to potential lower interest rates in September. The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility, hence a considerable rise which can support Gold. If the possibility continues to rise, investors may increase exposure to Gold. The price of Gold rose 1.15% on Wednesday.

If the employment data is weaker than what analysts are currently expecting, investors potentially may turn to Gold as an alternative. This is due to the commodity’s safe haven nature and its use as a hedge. For example, if the US Unemployment Rate rises to 4.1% and the NFP data reads 180,000, demand for Gold can quickly increase!



Currently the price of Gold is trading lower during this morning’s session, but has not yet formed a lower low. If the price drops to a lower low, the trend indicates a larger retracement or a full correction back to $2,338.65. The smaller timeframes currently point to this scenario, but this will change if the price increases above $2,362.44.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th July 2024.

NFP Is Here! How Will Today’s NFP Impact The NASDAQ

• Labour win UK Elections, receiving an unconditional majority of seats in the House of Commons (410 out of 650).
• The British Pound and FTSE100 increase in value as Labour wins an outright majority.
• The Japanese Yen sharply increases in value as the US Dollar underperforms ahead of the US employment data.
• Investors turn their attention to today’s NFP release and Unemployment Data!

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.



The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th July 2024.

Market News – Asian & European Stocks Decline, Bitcoin Falls, and Key Economic Events Ahead
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Asian stocks mostly fell today, along with European and especially French bond markets which sold off modestly, with the Euro dropping on the shock French election outcome.
• Europe: The French leftist alliance is the surprise victor, winning the most seats. This outcome potentially limits the influence of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, both of which support increased public spending.
• Losses in the Euro and European bonds were tempered by the uncertainty still surrounding the structure of the next French government. The key questions for the markets include who the prime minister will be, how effectively they can collaborate with the far left to pass legislation, and crucially, what this will mean for France’s fiscal discipline.
• US: The US Jobs report revealed modest downside payroll surprises via revision and weak civilian jobs data that raised the jobless rate and exacerbated the big household-establishment divergence since late-2023.
• China: The PBOC aimed to gain more control over market interest rates by announcing additional open market operations and tightening the band for short-term rate fluctuations.
• Key events: Fed Chair Powell testimony and US inflation data are key events. Earnings reports from major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., are anticipated, along with rate decisions in New Zealand and South Korea.

Asian & European Open:

• A drop in Chinese equities today pushed China’s CSI 300 negative for the first time in five months ahead of a key Chinese Communist meeting.
• French government bond futures lagged behind their German counterparts, although the spread between them started to narrow, indicating waning market jitters.
• Wall Street climbed amid a variety of rationale including Fed hopes, the decline in yields, and a still decent, albeit more moderate employment report.
• The NASDAQ and S&P500 hit more fresh all-time highs, the 24th and 34th, respectively, of 2024. The NASDAQ surged 0.90% to 18,352 and the S&P500 was up 0.54% to 5567. The Dow managed a 0.17% gain to 39,375.
• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose by as much as 0.4%, with TSMC reaching a record high after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the company.
• Boeing Co. agreed to plead guilty to criminal conspiracy to defraud the US, following a Justice Department conclusion that the company failed to comply with a previous settlement related to two 737 Max jetliner crashes.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex holds below 105, while EURUSD returned some losses and turned back to 1.0835 area. The USDJPY recovered to 160.80.
• Bitcoin fell by 5.2% to $55,290 some $19,000 below March’s record high. This is due to concerns over potential sales by creditors of the failed Mt. Gox exchange which has begun returning a roughly $8 billion hoard of the largest digital asset.
• Gold and Oil prices steadied. Oil traders monitored twin threats to production from a storm in the US and wildfires in Canada.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

[b]Date: 9th July 2024.[/b]

 

[b]Market News – Stocks Under Pressure Ahead of Powell.[/b]

 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

 

• Trading was nondescript with the markets digesting recent data, including the jobs report, and events including the elections overseas.
• Asian stock markets were supported, however, the positive mood didn’t spill over into Europe, where indexes are mostly lower.
• US futures are finding some buyers but investors are cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony. Powell will be questioned on the prospects for rate cuts.
• Japan: the BoJ will speak face-to-face with market participants over the next couple of days as the bank tries to set a realistic pace for the planned reduction of bond purchases.
• China: investors continue to weigh the bank’s new liquidity operations. The bank is aiming to take greater control over short-term borrowing costs and investors seem to take it like a rate hike, which put pressure on bonds. Markets are also looking ahead to the biggest annual policy meeting, with hopes of additional stimulus measures.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street was mixed. Strength in big tech rallied the NASDAQ and S&P500, albeit marginally, with gains of 0.28% and 0.10%, respectively. But the gains were enough for more fresh highs, the 25th and 35th of the year.
• Nikkei and Sensex touched fresh all-time highs, after the S&P500 led the way.
• Long bonds are also down in Europe and the US, after a drop in yields across key Asian markets.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex softened to a session nadir of 104.80 on broadbased weakness, and especially as GBP and EUR stabilized. But the buck rebounded confidently to 105.09.
• Bitcoin steadied but remains below the key $59k level.
• Oil remained relatively stable following a 2-day decline, as Hurricane Beryl appeared less likely to cause significant disruptions to Texas’ crude infrastructure. However it’s hovering at the key 81.60 level (repeated resistance in the mid of June).
• Gold steadied after experiencing its largest drop in two weeks on Monday, while copper edged lower.

[b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b]

 

[b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b]

 

Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE!

 

[url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url]

[b]

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HFMarkets

[/b]

[b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks advance, Kiwi & Dollar dip.
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The rising political uncertainties, and the wait for more data to clarify the Fed’s rate cut path, are combining with summer doldrums to keep trading quiet and range bound.

• Fed Chair Powell did not say anything really new in his Senate testimony, as expected. There were a few nuances, though, that further support expectations that the next move will be a cut.
• Financials led the way for the broad index after Chair Powell indicated a re-proposal for Basel III rules would be sent out, giving banks more time and breathing room.
• RBNZ delivers dovish hold, as the comments set the stage for a rate cut later in the year and the NZD weakened as local bonds rallied. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its official cash rate at 5.50%, but signalled that it is inching closer to a rate cut. The statement said “restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1-3 percent target range in the second half of the year.”
• China’s consumer prices saw a slight increase in June, staying close to zero for the 5th month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures hindering economic recovery. Meanwhile, factory-gate prices remained in deflation.
• Japan’s largest banks urged the Bank of Japan to significantly reduce its monthly bond purchases during recent central bank hearings.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street and Treasuries were mixed. The S&P500 advanced 0.10% to 5577, a 6th straight day of gains (the best since the start of the year) and another fresh high, the 36th record for 2024. The NASDAQ was 0.11% firmer at 18,429, also at a new peak, its 26th for the year.
• Japanese stocks advanced, while those in China and Australia declined. Nikkei surged to another record high, approaching 42,000.
• The heavy tilt towards the tech sector has heightened risks if the AI-driven rally stumbles. Valuations are high, and earnings growth is expected to slow, adding uncertainty for investors banking on Big Tech’s continued rise. Citigroup strategists, suggest it might be time to take profits in leading AI stocks, despite strong sentiment and better-than-expected free cash flow projections for these firms.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex declined from 105.208 back to 104.70.
• Oil prices have continued to decline, as Chinese demand and continued uncertainty over the timeline for Fed interest rate cuts outweighed signs of another inventory draw in the US.
• Gold slightly higher at 2372 amid Dollar strength.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.