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বিডিফরেক্সপ্রো' ফরেক্স সংক্রান্ত সব আলোচনা, মতামত এবং ফরেক্স শিক্ষা বিষয়ক এক উন্মক্ত এবং অনন্য স্থান। মান সম্মত আলোচনা, প্রতিনিয়ত গুরুত্তপুর্ন সব ট্রেডিং স্ট্রেটিজি এবং এনালাইসিসের মাধ্যমে সঠিক ট্রেডিং গাইডলাইন প্রদান বিডিফরেক্সপ্রো'র অন্যতম প্রধান বৈশিষ্ট। এই ফোরামে রেজিস্ট্রেশন সম্পূর্ণ ফ্রী। পোস্ট এর পূর্বে অনুগ্রহ করে ফোরাম নিতিমালা গুলো পড়ে, বুঝে পোস্ট করুন। ধন্যবাদ;

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Date : 23rd April 2021.

Market Update – April 23 – Equities and Bitcoin Lower; USD Flat.


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Market News Today  US Equities down again (-0.92%), USD (91.20) & Yields (1.55%) flat, BTC tanks under $50k on Biden proposal to raise capital gains tax to 40%. ECB nothing new, Largarde talked up strong 2H recovery, June meeting likely to see some changes. Claims at 13-month low. Overnight AUD up on good PMIs, JPY CPI lower PMIs ease higher too, Big jump for credit card spending in NZ and UK Retail Sales much better 5.4% vs 1.5%. AT&T & Intel beat expectations. Earth Summit – Biden cuts US emissions target by 50% for 2030, Japan, Canada and UK also cut targets.

European Open – Asian stock markets traded mixed, after Wall Street was hit by proposals for a higher capital gains tax for the wealthy in the U.S. as a way to pay for the government’s social plan. U.S. futures are already moving higher again, but Asian markets struggled after the weaker close in the U.S.. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.6% and -0.8%, as inflation came in a tad higher than anticipated, although at -0.1% y/y the headline rate remains stuck in negative territory. The ASX lost -0.1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bpo to 1.56% and bonds were also under pressure across Asia. In FX markets the dollar struggled, while CAD and AUD were supported. EUR-JPY dropped back to 107.89. Oil prices meanwhile pared a weekly loss, as the focus shifts back to recovering demand at the end of a week that was dominated by concerns over the resurgence of virus cases and rising stockpiles.

Today – Highlights include Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings from Daimler, Honeywell and American Express

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Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from 0.7060 low yesterday and open today. Moved over 20- and 50-hour MAs, next resistance 200-hour at 0.7096. Faster MAs remain aligned higher from open, RSI 53 cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remain under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 26th April 2021.

The BoJ meets!.


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Japan’s BoJ begins its two-day meeting tonight, and will announce policy on Tuesday. No changes are expected, though the Bank is expected to lower its inflation forecasts, largely due to lower cellphone charges, which will keep expectations for ongoing stimulus in place. The markets are closed Thursday for Showa Day.

Growth optimism seems to be heralding a return of reflation trades, as sharply higher services PPI numbers out of Japan just months away from hosting the Olympics added to signs that companies will pass on higher costs as soon as consumer demand bounces back. The Tokyo motor show was cancelled. In data, Japan March inflation numbers, released last Friday, showed core CPI lifting to a y/y rate of -0.1% from -0.4%. In the meantime investors are wary given lofty valuations and with considerable corporate earnings improvement in the year ahead having already been priced in, but rising input costs and the prospect of higher corporate tax rates in the US are clouding the outlook on this front. The tsunami wave of new Covid cases in India is also a concern. Oil prices have turned nearly 2% low today, with commentaries citing an expected decline in demand from India.

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That said, Yen found ground on the US Dollar slump and USDJPY printed a low at 107.65, but remained above Friday’s near eight-week low at 107.47. The pair has been tracking the narrowing in the US 10-year yield advantage relative to the 10-year JGB yield, which has been in play for three weeks now. The solid demand that was seen at the 20-year US bond auction last week suggests that, for now, longer-dated yields are likely to remain without upside impetus, though we are still anticipating strong data over the coming months that will likely re-inspire bond markets to price in contingency risk that the Fed may be forced into withdrawing monetary stimulus sooner than it is currently signalling.

According to Reuters, many Japanese life insurers, major investors in global bonds, plan to increase their holdings of Yen bonds as their yields have recovered from lows while some of them are more cautious about foreign bonds.

As for USDJPY, the prevailing bias looks likely to remain to the downside for now, though the bigger picture remains bullish, anticipating a renewed phase of rising US yields in the months ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 27th April 2021.

Market Update – April 27 – Caution ahead of FED.


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Market News Today – The short term virus outlook remains difficult in places such as India, which is keeping a lid on growth expectations near term, although looking ahead, confidence that the global recovery will rebound later in the year remains intact.

Central banks meanwhile seem successful in keeping a lid on reflation trades for now, although the risk is that with monetary policy failing to take the foot off the accelerator, they will add to bubbles and over-valuations that could be difficult to correct smoothly. The BoJ already announced steady policy settings and lifted the growth forecast slightly overnight, while in Europe, the Swedish Riksbank is expected to do the same and the Fed, which begins its 2-day meeting today, is also likely to do the same. Meanwhile, China’s anti-trust crackdown has also come into focus again.

10-year Treasury yields are up 0.9 bp at 1.58%, still firmly below recent highs. JGB rates lifted 0.9 bp to 0.069%. Stock markets across the region traded cautiously. JPN225 lost -0.3%. The ASX dropped nearly 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up. GER30 and UK100 futures are fractionally lower, while US futures are posting gains of around 0.2%. In FX markets the Yen was under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 108.40. The AUD and NZD fell as caution reined in markets ahead of the Fed. The EUR fell to 1.2064, while GBP is unchanged. USOIL is trading at $62.46 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed bitcoin fund. BTC holds at 53.5K

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in Europe are thin on the ground, but include the UK CBI retailing survey. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Novartis, Eli Lilly, Texas Instruments, UPS, Amgen, Starbucks, Raytheon, HSBC, 3M, AMD, BP, Mondelez, Chubb, Sherwin-Williams, Corning, ADM, Yum China, Synchrony Financial, PulteGroup, Hasbro, Invesco, and Hubbell.

2021-04-27_09-39-24.jpg

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT + 13.6%) – Ripple reverses 6-day drift, Cryptos were supported by Musk and Tesla – the firm said it did sell some of the crypto (in its Q1 earnings call) but only as ‘proof of concept’ the coin could be used in place of cash and also on reports that JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed Bitcoin fund.

In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 71 with MACD extending northwards again. ATR (H1) at 0.06176 & ATR (D) at 0.3011.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 28th April 2021.

Market Update – April 28 – Low risk appetite.


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Market News Today – The FOMC and earnings remain the focal points. India continues to threaten, and there are some fears over developing inflationary pressures. No changes or surprises are expected from the Fed. Meanwhile, strong earnings have largely been priced in, so bulls are unwilling to chase stocks higher currently, especially with rates on the rise again. Wall Street was mixed but mostly higher, while the USA100 was modestly lower, though all are at or near all-time highs. Treasury yields advanced a further 2 bp to 1.64%. However, weaker than expected inflation data out of Australia helped to put a floor under local bonds and Australia’s 10-year rate dropped back -0.7 bp to 1.72%. Global Stock markets mostly managed to move higher. The JPN225 lifted 0.5%, and the ASX 0.4%, helped by expectations that the low inflation environment will keep the RBA sidelined for a long time to come.

In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2074 and Cable at 1.3884. USDJPY lifted to 108.88, while the AUD was under pressure. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 63.18 per barrel. Gold prices fell to a 1-week low at63.18perbarrel.[B]Gold[/B]pricesfelltoa1weeklowat1,766, weighed down by firmer US Treasury yields with investors awaiting policy cues from the Federal Reserve’s statement, while Palladium retreats from the all-time high hit on Tuesday.

FOMC preview: This week’s FOMC is universally expected to maintain a steady policy stance. Policymakers will release their decision at 14:00 ET, and Chair Powell will follow up at 14:30 ET with his press conference. Remember too that this meeting does not include new economic projections. Officials have assured to a Spokesperson that the ZIRP posture will be maintained for “some time” into the future, and the dots suggest that this will be at least 2 years. The brightening economic outlook and the improvement in the job situation has not been enough to move the needle on policy, and Chair Powell has said there is a long way to go until the labor market returns to its pre-pandemic levels. The Fed should reiterate that the “path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.” It has also stressed it will maintain its accommodative stance until “substantial further progress” has been made on its dual goals, while emphasizing the stance is outcome based and that it will not act pre-emptively based on forecasts. The Fed won’t provide any clarity on what is “some time” or “substantial further progress.” There has been market speculation that the strength in the economy and the trillions of fiscal stimulus on board will see the Fed sound less hawkish, but that time is not now, especially with the surge in virus infections abroad. Officials will also be concerned over the negative effects of a taper tantrum.

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in the US session include the US Advance Goods, the OPEC Meeting and Canadian Retail Sales. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Apple, Facebook, QUALCOMM, Shopify, Boeing, Sony etc.

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Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.27%) – CADCHF turned above 20-DMA after more than 3 weeks at 0.7387. The overall outlook remains choppy. In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 63 with MACD extending northwards but keeps close to 0. ATR (H1) at 0.00062 & ATR (D) at 0.00540.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 29th April 2021.

Market Update – April 29 – What a night!!!

 
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Market News Today  Japan was closed for a holiday today but elsewhere stock markets got a boost from the FOMC’s commitment to ongoing stimulus and Biden’s USD 1.8 trillion social support plan, with stimulus expected to underpin the recovery in world growth.
 
  • Action was seen in the front end of the Treasury market. The 2-year yield dropped 1.6 bps to 0.164% from a test of 0.18% after the FOMC assured tapering and lift off was still not even in the conversation. There had been some suspicion, and pricing, for a possible bearish hint, which was not forthcoming.
  • Wall Street was mixed and choppy on the day before closing with slight losses, with the US indexes just off record highs initially and a mix of earnings.
  • Apple, Facebook earned massive profits amid increased scrutiny.
  • Apple reported record fiscal second-quarter revenue of 89.6 billion on surging sales of premium iPhones and pandemic-induced buying of its other products. Apple authorized an additional 89.6billiononsurgingsalesofpremiumiPhonesandpandemicinducedbuyingofitsotherproducts.Appleauthorizedanadditional[B]90 billion in stock buybacks.
  • NatWest returned to profit in the first quarter of 2021 ($1.32 billion pre-tax).
  • In Australia, much higher than expected import and export prices will keep lingering inflation concerns alive. Import price inflation finally turned positive and export prices jumped more than 11%.
  • The Fed acknowledged rising inflation though and German preliminary inflation data for April is likely to be a focus today and could weigh on bonds later in the session.
  • Amazon is raising wages for its hourly employees after a majority of workers at one of the e-commerce giant’s warehouses voted not to unionize.
  • Facebook temporarily blocked posts containing hashtags calling on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resign, then reinstated them on Wednesday, saying the action had been taken in error.
In FX markets, the USD continued to weaken as a doggedly dovish outlook from the FED and spending plans from the White House gave a green light for the global reflation trade, although the Yen also struggled and USDJPY held pretty steady at 108.61. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 64.11 per barrel. The EUR and GBP gained against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD at 1.2135 and Cable just under the 1.40 mark. The AUD was under pressure. USOIL is above $64 as bullish forecasts for a demand recovery this summer offset concerns of rising COVID-19 cases in India, Japan and Brazil. Palladium & Copper retreat from the all-time highs hit on Tuesday.

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Today – The markets will quickly turn their attention back to earnings and data after the uneventful FOMC. Today’s data releases include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone ESI confidence data, while the earnings calendar features reports from Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, Thermo Fisher, McDonald’s, Shell, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, American Tower, S&P Global, Altria, Southern Company, Twitter etc.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 30th April 2021.

Market Update – Month End – USD weak, Stocks & Commodities Bid.


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Market News Today – S&P500 closed at ATH again. USD slipped again (EUR at 2-mth high and up 3%+ for April, USDCAD at 3 year lows). AMZN Earnings big beat – +44% increase in sales (108.5bn); record profits (tripled) AWS +32%, Ad sales a massive +77%; Shares +2.4% after-hours. TWTR beats, rev +28% (108.5bn);recordprofits(tripled)AWS+321.04Bn). Yields rallied to 1.69% 2-week high (now 1.641%). Yesterday – US GDP (6.4%), Claims (553K) and Pending Home sales (1.9%) all missed expectations. Overnight Japanese data better than expected, Chinese data mixed (both close until Wednesday).

JPY under 109.00 at 108.75 (PP), Cable at 1.3945 (PP) and AUD rejected 0.7800 yesterday trades at 0.7775 (PP)

USOIL at 6- week high peaked at 65.00, Gold –65.00,Gold1770 following volatile session (highs 1790, lows 1756) BTC under 53,000 on close – back to 54,300 (PP) now.

European Open – Risk aversion picked up again overnight as investors were spooked by China’s anti-trust crackdown, although the DAX future is up 0.2%, after an unexpected expansion in French GDP at the start of the session and yesterday’s underperformance. The FTSE 100 future is down -0.2% and U.S. futures are also in the red, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ underperforming and down -0.4%.

Today – German GDP (Flash), EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP (Prelim), US PCE & Chicago PMI, Fed’s Kaplan. Earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, Barclays, BBVA, BNP, Eni

2021-04-30_09-56-17.png

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.20%) rejected 1.5600 again yesterday moved under 50- and 20-hr MA and Daily PP. Next support 200-hr MA & S1 at 1.5550. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 47 & cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but remain above 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 3rd May 2021.

Market Update – May 3.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today  A month-end bid, and rotation out of equities has supported!

Covid continues to wreak havoc in parts of Asia, and will keep investors nervous again this week, as India deals with a firestorm of new cases (the highest daily cases anywhere in the world) and rising deaths. Additionally, parts of Japan remain under a state of emergency with restrictions in areas including Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Japan will be on Golden Week holidays Monday through Wednesday, and there are no top-tier data releases for the remainder of the week. China’s April trade report is due at the end of the week. The quiet session in Asia impacted trading in Europe today, with the UK still on an extended weekend break. GER30 futures are fractionally higher at the moment, and US futures are outperforming, although the tech heavy USA100 future is struggling amid lingering concern over China’s anti-trust crackdown, that also saw the Hang Seng selling off again. Inflation developments and lingering tapering fears will also be on markets’ minds as the BoE meeting comes into view. Elsewhere, CPI data from around the globe, along with the usual mix of growth, trade, retail sales and US NFP. For central banks, the RBA, BoJ and BoE meet, though no changes are expected. German retail sales jumped 7.7% m/m in March.

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar retreated and USDJPY lifted to 109.62, while the USDIndex jumped to 91.40. The US Dollar strengthened as risk trades slipped further. USOIL meanwhile dropped back to $62.90 per barrel. Ethereum has hit a fresh record high, following news of a potential digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain.

Today – The calendar today includes the final readings for Eurozone April manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. Earnings season continues with reports from Estee Lauder, Enterprise Products, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, WEC Energy, Williams Companies, ON Semi, SolarEdge, Loews Corp., Diamondback Energy, Chegg, and Apollo Global Management. The Treasury will outline its Q2 and Q3 borrowing projections.

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Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.37%) – NZDJPY reversed Friday’s losses and extended to 78.65. The overall outlook remains positive, while in the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is breaking above 50 with MACD extending northwards but remains below 0. ATR (H1) at 0.1104 & ATR (D) at 0.6449.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 4th May 2021.

Market update – Shares edging higher.


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Market News Today – Treasuries kicked off May with modest gains, correcting from the losses to end April. Caution ruled as Covid problems remain worries, especially with the spike in India. Wall Street was led by the USA30‘s 0.7% rally, with the USA500 up 0.27%, though the USA100 slipped -0.48% lower, as tech stocks were under pressure. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting that the economic recovery remains patchy helped to boost Treasuries yesterday, but bonds traded mixed overnight. Australia markets outperformed, but yields have come back from lows after the RBA left policy settings unchanged for now but upgraded its economic outlook. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and up 0.3% respectively, the latter in catch up mode as UK markets return from the extended bank holiday weekend. Trading conditions remained quiet, with China and Japan still on holiday.

In FX markets, the US Dollar strengthened across the board and USDJPY lifted to 109.33. Both EUR and GBP dropped against a largely stronger USD and also speculations on BoE. Analysts reckon the bank might announce a slowdown in its bond buying programme as vaccinations have bolstered Britain’s economy. Ethereum is at 160% above the 200-day MA, breaking 3,500. USOIL[/B] meanwhile spiked to3,500.USOIL[/B]meanwhilespikedto64.35 per barrel, as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travellers. The weaker-than-expected US data stoked concerns over recovery and limited losses for the safe-haven metal. Gold is down at $1,785, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at 1797.

Today – Data releases in Europe today focus on the final UK manufacturing PMI for April as well as consumer credit growth ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.

Untitled-3.png


Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT – USDRUB turned 0.44% lower, breaking the 20-period SMA. The MAs aligned lower while RSI is at 43 and pointing lower and MACD is below signal line, suggesting decreasing positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.24544 & ATR (D) at 0.90351.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 5th May 2021.

Market Update – May 5 – Yellen finesses comments.


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Market News Today  USD continues its May recovery (USDIndex holds over 91.00), Equities closed lower (Nasdaq shed 1.88%). Mrs. Yellen spooked the market and then toned down her interest rate rise/inflation comments. The Fed’s Kaplan and Allianz’s Al El-Erian also talk up “non-transitory” nature of the inflation threat. Yields cooled on USD advance, fell to 1.55% before moving 1.59%. Overnight Good jobs data from NZD and Housing data from AUD lift the antipodean pair. Japan, China and South Korea still closed.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.40, Cable rotates around 1.3900. AUD has support at 0.7700 and CAD still rotates through 1.2300

USOIL
 at 38-day high peaked at 66.00, Gold –66.00,Gold1776 following a volatile session (highs 1798, lows1798,lows1770) Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $55,000(PP).

European Open – The rout in tech stocks that hit markets yesterday has eased somewhat and US futures are moving higher – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also sought. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday reminded markets that with economies strengthening as fiscal stimulus picks up it is not a question of if, but when central banks will take the foot off the accelerator. Official rates may remain low for a while to come, but when asset purchases are reigned in, the long end will suffer. Stocks meanwhile may continue to see rotations out of companies that benefited from stay home orders to cyclicals. With the DAX closing below the 15000 mark yesterday there is room to the downside.

Today – Eurozone & US services & composite PMIs, ISM services PMI, ADP Employment, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Evans, Rosengren, Mester, ECB’s Lane, Earnings from GM, Barrick Gold, Maersk, Deutsche Post, Uber, PayPal & Hilton Hotels.

2021-05-05_09-44-16.png

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 6th May 2021.

Market Update – May 6 – GBP in focus ahead of BoE & Elections.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today  USD consolidates, (USDIndex holds PP at 91.25), Equities closed mixed (new ATH for USA30, USA100 down 0.37% as rotation away from tech continues). The AUD fell over 0.5% as China said it will “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. 10-yr Yields held at 1.59%. Commodities tear continues – Copper nudging 10- yr highs. German Factory orders much better than expected. Japan, China and South Korea back to work. Biden agrees to IP waiver for Covid vaccines.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone (again), JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.30, Cable rotates around 1.3900 ahead of BOE & Elections. AUD held support at 0.7700, back to 0.7745 now and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2250 zone.

USOIL peaked at 66.65 [/B]yesterday tested66.65[/B]yesterdaytested65.00 post inventories – back to 65.70 now Gold –65.70now[B]Gold1794 following a test of 200hr support at 1775). Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test 1775).Commoditiesremainrobust.[B]BTC[/B]backtotest[B]58,000 yesterday at $57,000 now. Dogecoin –

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-serious-in-latest-crypto-binge?sref=uHY27eog

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, U.S. futures are little changed, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 1.58%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.01% and 0.13% respectively, U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia, where rising trade tensions between China and Australia weighed on local markets. Investors will be starting to look ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report, but today’s local calendar is also quite busy, with BoE and Norges Bank announcing policy, a key local election in the U.K. that could have bearing on Scotland’s relation with Westminister, and a number of data points.

Today  BoE & (Norges & CBRT) rate decisions, UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Mester. Earnings from Moderna, Rengeneron, ViacomCBS, Peloton, AB Inbev, Continental, ArcelorMittal, ING, Volkswagen, SocGen, UniCredit. Up to 48 million people to vote in UK local elections.

2021-05-06_09-56-10.png

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.18%) rallied from lows below 131.00 yesterday to test R1 at 131.35 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55 & moving higher, MACD histogram testing 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs risingto test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0886, Daily ATR 0.6745.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 7th May 2021.

Market Update – May 7 – USD weaker ahead of NFP.


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Market News Today  USD moves lower, (USDIndex down (0.45%) to 90.80 earlier), EUR and Sterling both bid. Equities all closed higher (new ATH for USA30, USA500 +0.82%) Financials biggest gainers. Commodities tear continues GOLD breaks $1820. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.568%. Asian markets higher on strong data, from JPY (Earnings), CNY (Services PMI & the Trade Balance more than doubled) and NZD (inflation expectations).

EUR – rallied to test 1.2070, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.15, Cable rotates around 1.3900 again after volatile BOE reaction and ahead of Election results. AUD rallied to 0.7790, and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2140 – a new 38-month low.

USOIL peaked at 66.65 [/B]on Wednesday and tested under66.65[/B]onWednesdayandtestedunder65.00 earlier. Gold – major rally to 1820 [/B]first daily close over 200-day EMA (1820[/B]firstdailycloseover200dayEMA(1796) since mid-February. Commodities remain robust. BTC back down from test 58,000 [/B]yesterday to58,000[/B]yesterdayto56,000 now.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks on the day, underperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has dropped -0.3 bp to 1.566% overnight, despite markets positioning for a stellar US jobs report, which owes much to reassurances from major central banks that they will be patient on tapering and rates. Stock futures are moving higher, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures currently posting gains of 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are underperforming, but are also supported with a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.

Today – UK construction PMI, US and Canadian labour market reports, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Haldane, Broadbent, Fed’s Barkin Earnings from Adidas, BMW, Credit Agricole, IAG, Siemens.

2021-05-07_09-41-24.png


Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.34%) rallied from 7-day lows below 1.7830 yesterday to test PP at 1.7900 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.0117.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th May 2021.

May 10 – GBP skyrockets, USD down, Crypto and Metals in the spotlight.


copper-1-696x364.jpg
Market News Today – The overall tone in stocks remained positive through the Asian part of the session, after Wall Street shrugged off the disappointment of the US jobs report on Friday and took solace in the fact that the data will back the Fed’s dovish tone. Many Asian indices moved higher, while bonds struggled. JPN225 gained 0.4% today, the ASX more than 1% after strong business confidence data. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed and corrected -0.5% and -0.8% respectively against the background of anti-trust efforts and lingering US-China tensions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside gains in US futures.

In FX markets, the US Dollar sank to a 2-month low at 90.18. The GBP rallied to a 10-week high after local elections provided a boost to PM Johnson and seemed to fend off demands for another independence referendum in Scotland. Cable is trading at 1.4062 and EURGBP at 08640. EURUSD meanwhile dropped slightly to 1.2150. USDJPY lifted to 108.98 as the Yen weakened across the board. CAD and AUD were supported. USOIL is traded at $65.36 per barrel, after a key US pipeline was forced shut by a cyber attack (Colonial Pipeline). Copper skyrocketed to 4.869.

Ethereum extended this month’s record run, surging more than 5% to an unprecedented $4,148.88. The second-biggest digital token has rallied 41% so far in May. Bitcoin rallied but remains below 60K after Elon Musk called dogecoin a “hustle” during his guest-host spot on the “Saturday Night Live” comedy sketch TV show.

Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the 126 bln May refunding is on tap, and includes126blnMayrefundingisontap,andincludes58 bln in 3-year notes Tuesday, 41 bln in 10-year notes Wednesday, and41blnin10yearnotesWednesday,and27 bln in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields plunged on Friday following the jobs miss, but rebounded into the close as the market looked ahead to the upcoming supply. The wi 3-year traded 2 bps richer at 0.315% late Friday, with the wi 10-year fractionally cheaper at 1.590% and the wi 30-year 3.5 bps cheaper at 2.280%. Rates here would be the richest in two months for the 3- and 30-year maturities, and since March for the 10-year. Many of the auctions this year have shown sputtering demand, leading some to worry that demand for Treasuries is diminishing. This week’s auctions will be an interesting test, especially given richer rates alongside uncertainties over inflation, and now the job market.

Today – Virus developments remain encouraging and with central banks still providing support, it seems the recovery remains on track. Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, but includes UK house price data.

2021-05-10_09-55-31.jpg

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.92%) rallied from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI crossed 70 and still points upwards, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher extending away from 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 0.990.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 11th May 2021.

May 11 – Tech sell off & Commodities gain ahead of today’s data.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today  The stock markets sold off across Asia. Inflation concerns have hit tech stocks in particular, and the rise in commodity prices has seen the 5-year break even inflation rate lifting to the highest level since 2006, according to Bloomberg calculations. China CPI climbed to a 0.9% y/y clip in April, more than double the 0.4% y/y from March. The jump in commodity prices has sparked concern over extended valuations in equities and JPN225 corrected -2.4% and -2.1% respectively. The ASX sold off -1.0% and the Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%. Mainland China bourses outperformed despite a higher than expected PPI reading that reflected surging commodity prices worldwide.

While demand for Treasuries will be supported by safe haven flows, Eurozone peripherals, which outperformed yesterday, may well feel the chill this morning. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -1.3% and -1.2% respectively and a 0.7% correction in the tech heavy USA100 is leading US futures lower.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 108.95, with the US Dollar and Yen both struggling. Cable stabilised at high levels after yesterday’s surge – currently at 1.4124, as the UK BRC retail sales figures confirmed a surge in demand as the country continues to re-open. EURUSD meanwhile lifted to 1.2143. USOIL eased back to $64.33, as traders keep a wary eye on the impact of the cyber attack that led to pipeline closures.

Today – Today’s data calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to move higher.

Untitled-5-1024x644.png

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURCHF (+0.66%) reversed more than 40% of its 3-day decline from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, but RSI is close to 50 and MACD histogram & signal line remain well below zero even though they are presenting decreasing negative bias. The intraday positive bias remains limited. H1 ATR 0.0006, Daily ATR 0.0038.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 12th May 2021.

Market Update – May 12 – Inflation day.


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Market News Today – Fears over rising inflation weighed on both stocks and bonds, with equities bearing the brunt of the pressure. The broader indexes were the underperformers with the USA30 dropping -1.9% and the USA100 was down sharply too, off nearly -2%. Today, GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. The rout in tech stocks in particular continued to see wider markets selling off overnight, and European bourses are likely to continue to struggle ahead of key US inflation data later today. Treasuries were heavy too, led by the long end amid the inflation threat. Yields have spiked in Australia and New Zealand, after some warnings that Australia could lose its AAA rating.

Inflation fears have made a comeback although the sell off in equities seems to be abating somewhat, likely also thanks to ongoing verbal support from central banks, which continue to see the current spike in inflation as transitory. There was a plethora of Fedspeak and all concurred it was not the time to discuss tapering, while suggesting the disappointing jobs report was likely due to other issues aside from unemployment benefits.

In FX markets, the USD strengthened and USDJPY lifted to 108.89. AUD and NZD are broadly lower. Cable eased at high levels currently at 1.4130, EURUSD sustains support at 1.2115 for a 3rd day. USOIL stabilised at the $65 area.

Today – Today’s US inflation reading aside, the local calendar confirmed German HICP inflation at 2.1% largely thanks to base effects from energy prices. UK GDP for Q1 came in a tad better than feared, with the quarterly rate showing a contraction of -1.5% q/q, largely due to lockdown measures.

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Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.37%) broke 20- and 50-day SMA, spiking to 1.5562 high so far. Faster MAs stabilised and are flattened currently, as RSI after the 70 high is pulling back despite the bullish bias in the MACD histogram. Hence the intraday indicators suggest the end of the rally for the time being. H1 ATR 0.00185, Daily ATR 0.00911.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 13th May 2021.

Market Update – May 13 – Inflation jump keeps trading nervous.


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Market News Today –Despite warnings from policymakers, the jump in prices will keep trading nervous. Central bank officials remain adamant that the inflation overshoot that will likely be mirrored in the UK and if not the Eurozone then Germany, is mainly due to base effects and should be transitory, but stocks at least are not so convinced. The surge in April CPI weighed heavily on Treasuries and the jump in yields knocked Wall Street sharply lower. The spike in CPI stole the show this week, though the Fed and indeed global monetary authorities have warned about rising inflationary pressures, the 0.8% jump in the headline and 0.9% surge in the core elicited heavy selling.

Wall Street is on its heels with the USA100 falling -2.67% and the USA500 and USA30 tumbling -2.14% and -1.99%, respectively. The Treasury’s 10-year auction was very well bid, though at the highest yield in over a year. Bond markets across Asia sold off in catch up trade.

BoJ’s Kuroda joined the chorus of central bank officials playing down the spike in inflation as mainly due to base effects, but that didn’t prevent a further sell off in Asian stock markets. Asian equity markets remained under pressure after the sell off on Wall Street yesterday and European stock futures are also lower, with GER30 and UK100 down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively in catch up trade, after still closing higher on Wednesday.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 109.68. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD and Cable are little changed at currently 1.2074 and 1.4055 respectively. USOIL is at the $65.37 area. Bitcoin slumped and then recovered somewhat, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla Inc has suspended vehicle purchases using the digital currency due to environmental concerns.

Today – Scandi and Swiss markets are closed and many countries are either celebrating Ascension Day or end end of Ramadan, which will likely make for quiet trading conditions. On tap we have US Jobless Claims and speeches from BoC Macklem and BoE Bailey.

2021-05-13_10-54-53-1024x841.jpg

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%) spiked higher above R1 breaking the upper BB line and retesting the nearly 3-months Resistance, at 1.5700. Intraday the MAs aligned higher while RSI is at 71 but flattened and MACD is also positively configured suggesting a positive to neutral outlook. ATR (H1) at 0.00231 & ATR (D) at 0.00993.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 17th May 2021.

Market Update – May 17 – USD lifts, Gold rallies, BTC Sinks.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Market News Today  USD remains weak (USDIndex down to 90.27). Equities all closed higher (US100 biggest gainer up 2.32%), 457 of USA500 have reported earnings and 87% have beat expectations. Futs. softer today. Commodities tear continues, GOLD breaks 1850. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.62% from 1.70% last week. BTC bombed 12% before recovering, Musk suggested Tesla selling some or all of1850.[B]10yrYields[/B]slipwithUSDto1.621.5b investment (later denied). Asian markets mixed on mixed Chinese data, (Retail Sales missed significantly, Ind. Output in line, Unemployment improved.)

This week – Economic data slim, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – down a tad to 1.2135, JPY holds over 109.00 down to 109.20, Cable holds over 1.4100 AUD holds 0.7760 and CAD holds 1.2100

USOIL
 back over 65.00 [/B]from lows at65.00[/B]fromlowsat[B]63.00 on Thursday, Gold – rallied to 3 mth high 1855 Commodities remain robust. BTC down to test under 1855[/B]Commoditiesremainrobust.[B]BTC[/B]downtotestunder[B]42,000, back to $44,000 now.

European Open – Futures are also mixed, with US indices in the red, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both up 0.1%. The UK is taking another step towards a full re-opening of the economy today, but amid warnings of caution against the background of new virus variants. In the Eurozone, restrictions vary considerably across countries, with some already at the level of openness that the UK is now going back to. In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar earlier, only to improve as the session opened. Data releases today remain thin on the ground, with only the final reading for Italian HICP numbers of note.

Today – US NY Fed Manufacturing, BoE’s Haldane, Vlieghe, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Earnings from RyanAir & Advanced Auto Parts.

2021-05-17_10-27-21.png


Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.50%) rallied from 5-day lows below 1.9420 on close to test 1.9550 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 61 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line. Stochs rising and OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0155.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 19th May 2021.

Market Update – May 19 – USD & Equities weak, BTC Slumps.


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Market News Today  USD remains weak and cannot catch a bid at the moment. USDIndex down to 89.67. Equities closed down -0.85%, with significant fall in final hour; USA500 4127, despite robust earnings from Walmart & Home Depot. Housing data disappointed. VIX spiked 7.6% to 22.75. Asian markets follow lower. GOLD tested key $1875 level, USOil under $65.00. 10-yr Yields holds at 1.64% despite USD weakness. BTC tumbles under $40,000 on Chinese regulation. Overnight – NZD PPI better than expected, AUD Industrial Production misses. UK CPI  inline at 1.5% (although RPI & PPI stronger).

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), still to come today – Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – up and holds over 1.2200 at 3-mth highs 1.2240, JPY struggles and slips under 109.00, Cable rallied to 1.4220 highs yesterday, back under 1.4200 now. AUD back under 0.7800, CAD up from 6-year lows at 1.2012 to 1.2065, and NZD (yesterdays best performer) at 0.7230 from 0.7270)

USOIL edges back to $65.00, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, trades at $1873. Commodities remain robust. BTC sank under $40,000, (& Ether lost 13% to $2,900) after “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters. VIX again the largest mover UP 7.60% over 22.60 at 4-day highs.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 0.3 bp at 1.64%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.98% and -0.99% respectively, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which are also in the red, however, after a largely weaker session across Asia overnight. Inflation concerns remain in focus and markets will be watch out for the FOMC minutes today, although the last meeting was conducted ahead of the latest data release.

Today – EZ final CPI, Canadian CPI, FOMC Minutes, ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Bostic. Earnings from Lowe’s, Target, Cisco, L Brands, & Analog Devices.

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Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+7.60%) rallied from under 19.00, yesterday to 22.75 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 67 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line into close yesterday. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.57, Daily ATR 2.45.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 20th May 2021.

Market Update May 20 – USD gets reprieve, BTC Bounces.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today  USD gets a reprieve from surprise FOMC minutes. Minutes showed “taper talk” was discussed much more than any participant held implied since the meeting. USDIndex back over 90.00. Equities closed down -0.29%, USA500 4115, despite robust earnings from Lowes & Target, CISCO disappointed, after hours. Asian markets follow lower. Overnight – AUD unemployment mixed, JPY machine Orders better, trade flat.

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), Target (beat), Lowes (beat) Cisco (miss). Still to come today – Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren.

EUR – down from 3-mth highs at 1.2240 under 1.2200 to 1.2185, JPY still struggles at 109.00, Cable back under 1.4200 and 14100 now. AUD back to 0.7750, CAD up from 6-year lows to 1.2100.

USOIL
 edges back up after yesterdays sell-off from under 62.50 to 62.50to63.50, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at 1875, again trades at1875,[/B]againtradesat1874. Commodities cooled but remain robust. BTC sank under [imath]30,000, [/B](& lost -54% from peak last month) – back to [/imath]40k now. All from Musk & “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which have moved slightly higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate is down -0.2 bp at 1.67%. The reading is up from overnight lows though, as stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian part of the session and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. U.S. futures have moved sideways after a weaker close on Wall Street and against the background of the Fed minutes, which suggested that some policy markets have at least started to think about tapering “some point”. For now though the official line at central banks is that the uptick in inflation is transitory and ECB’s Schnabel, who predicted a German CPI rate of over 3% later in the year, said that inflation is likely to recede again in 2022.

Today  US Initial Job Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, SARB rate decision, ECB’s Lane, Lagarde, BoE’s Cunliffe, Fed’s Kaplan, Earnings from Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren

2021-05-20_09-59-03.png


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from under 0.6961, yesterday to over 0.7005 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 60 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line earlier. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0051.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th May 2021.

Market Update May 24 – Fear dominates.


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Market News Today – Consolidation generally ruled the day in bonds and stocks after some big swings in recent sessions. The focus remains on the robust recovery, the rise in inflation, virus spikes and widening distribution of vaccines, and the varying dimensions of all left the markets in limbo.

Traders kept a close eye on volatile cryptocurrencies as China reiterated its commitment to curb mining and trading. Bitcoin was savaged and is currently at $36.5k, after it was hurt in part by China’s crackdown on mining and trading of the largest cryptocurrency as part of ongoing efforts to prevent speculative and financial risks. China’s intensifying efforts to cool raw material prices were also in the mix, as were ongoing inflation concerns, which in turn fuelled lingering taper talk.
 
SHANGHAI, May 24 (Reuters) – Cryptocurrency miners, including HashCow and BTC.TOP, have halted their China operations after Beijing intensified a crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading, hammering digital currencies amid heightened global regulatory scrutiny of them. A State Council committee led by Vice Premier Liu He announced the crackdown late on Friday as part of efforts to fend off financial risks. It was the first time the council has targeted virtual currency mining, a big business in China that accounts for as much as 70% of the world’s crypto supply.

Treasuries traded narrowly around unchanged levels with the 10-year yield either side of 1.625%. Wall Street continued to meander in back-and-forth action as investors mulled growth versus value positions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and US futures are also fractionally higher, after a pretty steady session in Asia.

In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY dropped back to 108.70, while the Dollar was pretty steady against most other currencies. The EUR and GBP both steadied at 1.2190 and 1.4150. The AUD traded near the lower end of its 5-week range as the country’s central bank is seen lagging global peers in tightening monetary policy despite a strong economic recovery. It is currently at 0.7735. USOIL meanwhile is trading at USD 64.05 per barrel.

Today – Whit Monday/Pentecost holidays in parts of the continent will likely weigh on activity. The only key events of the day are Gov. Kuroda and Gov. Bailey speeches.

Untitled-6.png

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.51%) declined from 109.00 to 108.70. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 38 pointing lower, MACD histogram turned negative but signal line holds positive, suggesting that there is still some negative bias in the near term. H1 ATR 0.0665, Daily ATR 0.5566.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 25th May 2021.

Market Update – May 25 – Greenback drifts, Commodities Jump.


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Market News Today – Wall Street was higher overnight as diminished worries over inflation and declining Treasury yields offered support. Big tech took the lead, boosting the USA100 over 1.5% higher, with the USA500 up over 1% and the USA30 0.7% firmer.

While it may be early to pull down the inflation red flags, the 10-year breakeven fell the most last week since September, indicating less concern over prices. Investors will look toward Friday’s release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s favourite indicator.

Asian bond markets still benefited from soothing words on inflation from the Fed yesterday and yields dropped in Australia and New Zealand, while stock markets mostly moved higher, despite a mixed news flow that included further reports that Japan will extend the state of emergency on Covid developments and new local restrictions in Australia. The US State Department warning not to travel to Japan due to Covid may have some bearish repercussions on the markets in early trading. FTSE Russell will add China’s Xiaomi Corp to its global indexes next month.
 
  • Fed’s Bostic said the economy has been more resilient than expected.(voter)
  • Fed’s Bullard said he does not want to discuss adjusting policyduring the pandemic. (non-voter)
  • Fed Governor Brainard confined her prepared remarks on digital currencies. (voter)
  • UK: BoE members, including Governor Bailey, continued to argue that inflationary pressures are transitory in nature.
European News – In Europe, Germany had the second look at Q1 GDP, presenting that the Covid-19 hit on the German economy was bigger than expected in the first quarter. German Q1 GDP was revised slightly lower – to show contractions of -1.8% q/q, and -3.1% y/y (wda), versus -1.7% and -3.0% reported with the first release. Lockdown measures were the main reason for the sharp decline in activity, with restrictions severer than in France, Italy or Spain, at least initially.

2021-05-25_10-42-08.jpg

In FX markets, there were reports of Yuan intervention from China. Presently the Yen is mostly weaker and USDJPY little changed at 108.60. EURUSD lifted to 1.2252 and Cable skyrocketed to 1.4200. USOIL is trading at USD 66.05 per barrel as Iran suggested that there are still open questions in negotiations over a deal to end US sanctions on its crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose the most in about a week. Bitcoin reversed to 38.8K and GOLD jumped to 1886 on EU open from 1872.

2021-05-25_09-51-47.jpg Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index
Today – The European data calendar today has Q1 trade data, along with the May Ifo business climate report. The UK has April public sector borrowing figures. The US calendar includes new home sales, home price data, and consumer confidence.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 26th May 2021.

Market Update – May 26 – Yields fall further in opening trade.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – Bonds were in the spotlight on Tuesday, posting solid gains, while stocks were mixed in a more back-and-forth trade. Dovish comments from central bankers, and especially Fedspeak, which continue to play down inflation, provided support, as did a strong 2-year Treasury auction. Wall Street stumbled from its opening rally and shed its gains after data suggested rising price pressures knocked consumer confidence lower. But ongoing dovish Fedspeak helped offset the selling.

In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.04% respectively, with a 0.4% rise in the USA100 leading US futures higher. Strong survey data out of Germany confirmed a broadening and strengthening of the recovery, but in a way that backs the assertion that a temporary mismatch of supply and demand is the main reason for the rise in price pressures. ECB’s Stournaras said he doesn’t see the need for a change to the PEPP program.

The June 10-year Bund future is down -0.6 bp, which suggests bonds will get a bid in early trade, after Fed officials once again moved to calm taper concerns and inflation jitters by re-iterating that the rise in prices will prove temporary.

Any initial demand for bonds may quickly fizzle out, especially after the RBNZ projections reminded markets that the next move at central banks will almost certainly result in tighter policies. RBNZ left policy unchanged, as expected.

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar struggled, while the NZD rallied as yields jumped higher. USDJPY is currently little changed at 108.76. Both EUR and GBP moved higher against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2259 and Cable at 1.4161. USOIL is trading at USD 66.04 per barrel, as traders weigh expectations of improving demand in the US against the possibility of new supply from Iran. Bitcoin gained 2.39% to 39,314.81 despite China’s northern region of Inner Mongolia escalating a campaign against cryptocurrency mining on Tuesday, days after Beijing vowed to crack down on bitcoin mining and trading. Gold is at 39,314.81despiteChinasnorthernregionofInnerMongoliaescalatingacampaignagainstcryptocurrencyminingonTuesday,daysafterBeijingvowedtocrackdownonbitcoinminingandtrading.Goldisat[B]1907.

Today – The calendar is pretty empty today, with only some national business confidence readings out of France, before the Eurozone ESI report tomorrow and FOMC Quarles speaking, and Crude Inventories.

Untitled-12-1024x551.png

Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+1.28%) rallied to 79.55 after RBNZ, breaking 79.41 which was the Resistance level maintained since March 2018. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 82 but still pointing right, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher while Stochs rising despite reaching OB at 93. The OB condition of both RSI and Stochs could alert the need of consolidation or pullback, but this is not the case so far. H1 ATR 0.1596, Daily ATR 0.6699.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 27th May 2021.

EURUSD: Improving outlook with downside risks.


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Central bankers continue to do their best to keep tapering concerns at bay, but while ECB’s de Cos added to the dovish voices out of the Eurozone this week, Bundesbank President Weidmann and centrist Executive Board member Schnabel are due to speak this afternoon and likely to present a more balanced view. A compromise for the June meeting could be a scaled back monthly purchase target within an unchanged PEPP framework and overall QE target, which would effectively mirror the BoE’s action. Against that background the air for Eurozone bonds as well as stocks may be getting thinner at these levels as markets look to US data releases. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.

2021-05-27_14-04-17-1024x549.jpg

EURUSD has drifted off highs as markets anticipate a batch of US economic data releases today and tomorrow, including key price data. The Euro has lately found an underpinning from the improving outlook in the Eurozone economy, with the recent wave of Covid infections having been quelled and the EU having finally got its act together with its vaccination program. As for the US inflation situation, the prevailing dominant view is that price pressures will abate in Q3, as year-on-year base effects narrow and supply bottlenecks are ironed out, which — for now at least — is keeping shorter-dated Treasury yields anchored at low levels, with the Fed expected to hold out on ZIRP and QE.

The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows that market positioning is implying a probability for a 25 bp Fed hike by year-end of just 9%, having ebbed back from the 11% odds that were being implied last week.

EURUSD 
futures are implying a first 25 bp hike in 2023, about a year ahead of what the Fed has been signalling. EURUSD is holding higher above the 20-day EMA. However, the market has been trading in a horizontal trajectory the past 8 days within the upper boundary of the 1.2165 Resistance and the lower immediate boundary of the 1.2157 Support. The RSI is sloping sideways above the 50 level, while the stochastic is heading downwards after the negative cross within the %K and %D lines. MACD lines held well above zero, presenting along with RSI an overall bullish outlook but a neutral outlook in the near-term.

However the key Support level for the asset is 1.2135, which is the confluence of the 20-Day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level. If the price breaks this bottom, it could meet the 50-day SMA and the 1.2000-1.2050 area. Bullish movements could open the way for the pair to test the year’s peak and even the multi-year highs at 1.2460-1.2500, if the bulls manage to successfully surpass 1.2250 (FE 61.8%).

In conclusion, EURUSD is neutral in the near term but is looking neutral to bearish in the short-term outlook.

Nevertheless, as stated in our latest post, EURUSD’s prevailing upside bias seems likely to sustain so long as markets continue to buy-in to the Fed’s narrative, but would see downside risk should Fed tapering start to look more inevitable. This would be when the US versus Eurozone growth differential is matched by a Fed versus ECB tightening expectations differential, which would be the circumstance for the directional bias of EURUSD to shift to the downside.

It is notable that the doves on the governing council have lately been quiet about the ascent of the Euro, despite the tightening effect via real interest rates. In fact ECB’s Panetta said just yesterday that the recent rise in the Euro could, if sustained, “weaken inflationary pressures.” Given the outsized fiscal stimulus and higher growth trajectory in the US, the bigger-picture risk for EURUSD is to the downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 28th May 2021.

Market Update – May 28 – US Inflation & Stimulus in focus.

 
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LONDON

Market News Today – Treasuries slumped after news President Biden will offer a $6 tln spending plan on Friday. Gilts led a sell off in EGBs yesterday after hawkish leaning comments from BoE’s Vlieghe hinted at the possibility of an early rate hike. Wall Street was generally firmer on reflation trades and the stimulus news, though the major indexes also lost altitude into the close as the administration also indicated it wanted to make the capital gains tax increase retroactive to April. As for the data, the mixed numbers didn’t provided any clear directional clues. The BoJ is reportedly mulling an extension of the pandemic relief program as Japan prepares to extend its state of emergency. Stock markets at least moved broadly higher across the Asia-Pacific region. JPN225 jumped 2.1%, at 29,127.

Today, stock markets are not really spooked and the GER30 and UK100 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures. In the meantime, German import prices were released and jumped 10.3% y/y in April, the highest reading since December 2010 and up from 6.9% y/y in the previous month. Base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, with oil prices up nearly 200%, prices for mineral oil products nearly 80% and natural gas up nearly 60%.

In FX markets, NZD eased across the board, while USD and Yen were sought. NZDUSD is at 0.7240 (200-period EMA). Both EUR and GBP moved lower against the Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2175 and Cable at 1.4105. USOIL rallied to $67.16. Gold is at $1889.30 ahead of today’s data.

Today
: Local data releases today are likely to support the recovery story, with Eurozone ESI economic confidence, and key US data in the PM session, i.e. PCE, Michigan Index and Good Trade Balance. The G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and central bankers may also attract some attention.
 
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Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT – NZDUSD -0.65%) NZDUSD dipped to 0.7240. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 31 and still sloping, MACD histogram & signal line turned below zero. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0069.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 31st May 2021.

Market Update – May 31 – USD Holds gains.


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Market News Today  UK , US closed today. USD holds gains following Fridays PCE and PMI data. USDIndex closed Friday @90.00 down from 90.41 high and –1.34% for the month. US stocks closed flat on Friday (For April USA30 +1.94% & USA100 -1.53%) Global stocks start muted to the new week. Most Asian equities retreated after signs China’s econ recovery may be leveling out (PMI dipped) and JPY data was mixed, global inflation risks a concern. Bonds steady w/US 10y yields at 1.59%. Gold reclaims $1,904 and USOil trades at $66.65.

This week 
– Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI & a rate decision from the RBA and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Virus developments remain in focus as recovery broaden but against the background of rising cost pressures. On the data front, the focus will be on preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which are likely to show a further acceleration in headline rates. The German number is already above the ECB’s definition for price stability and likely to rise further, although for now base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, which allows the ECB to see through what it still expects to be a temporary overshoot.

Today – German regional & national CPIs.

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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.26%) up from Friday’s low at 0.7676 to move over 0.7000 into close and now trade at 0.7725. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.25 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line from below. Stochs. rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 1st June 2021.

Market Update – June 1 – USD Back under pressure.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today  USD weighed into the new month. USDIndex down into close under 90.00 at 89.75 now. RBA – No Change and no fuss – although they did highlight the improving jobs market, concern over housing price surge and the Covid outbreak in Victoria – AUD been a good performer along with GBP over night. Asian markets positive at 1-month highs, positive PMI data from JPY & CNY and AUD Housing data, lifted sentiment. Oil up ahead of OPEC+ meeting (not expected to discuss output beyond July and wants to wait and see what happens with Iran) “sources”. Brent over $70.00, USOil at $67.65 and 12 week highs. GOLD bid by inflation worries & weaker USD – trades at $1913, next key resistance $1922-5.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Holidays in the U.K. and the U.S. made for a very slow start to the week yesterday. Investors will be back today but trading so far has still been muted. The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.62% in catch up trade. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and down -0.3% respectively, while U.S. futures are posting fractional gains. Further indications of strengthening growth are also accompanied by lingering inflation concerns and of course tapering jitters. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.2233, while Cable has lifted to 1.4227

Today
 – EZ, UK, US Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ Flash CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Quarles, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey and JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Earnings from ZOOM.

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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.25%) rallied from near 16- week lows on Friday’s close at 0.6920 yesterday to close at 0.6950. Rallied again today to 0.6977 ahead of RBA, since cooled to support at 0.6960. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.00 and now neutral, MACD histogram & signal line choppy, remain over 0 line from below. Stochs. moving lower out of OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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    • By HFblogNews
      Date : 2nd June 2021.

      Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.


      Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured. USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

      This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

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      Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.



      Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Stuart Cowell
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      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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