Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Extend Losses

 

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6560 and 0.6540 support levels. NZD/USD is gaining bearish momentum below the 0.6030 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6540 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6120 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major rising channel with support near 0.6060 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6600 level. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6560 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6540. The pair even settled below 0.6540 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.6509 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6616 swing high to the 0.6509 low at 0.6540.

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6616 swing high to the 0.6509 low at 0.6560, above which the price could rise toward 0.6600. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6615.

A close above the 0.6615 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6650.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6510 level. The next support could be the 0.6500 level. If there is a downside break below 0.6500, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6450 region.  Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6420 support.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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XAU/USD Price Analysis: Bears Approach Important Support

 

Yesterday, fresh values of the CPI index were published, which testified to a moderate slowdown in inflation in the US. The actual value was 3.2% in annual terms (expected 3.3%, a month earlier = 3.0%, a year earlier = 9.1%).

In reaction to the news, the price of gold fell from a daily high around USD 1,930 an ounce to renew the August low. Such behavior can be interpreted as a decrease in the value of the precious metal, as it loses its relevance as a protective asset against inflation.

Earlier we wrote that August began for the gold market in a bearish way. The trend continues.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe shows that:

→ the price develops dynamics within the descending channel, which has been operating since May of this year;
→ yesterday there was a test of resistance at the level of USD 1,930, which served as support in early August. This is a bearish sign;
→ the price of gold is approaching an important support at the psychological level of USD 1,900 per ounce;
→ a series of lower highs is formed on the chart;
→ the RSI indicator rose from the oversold zone, forming a bullish divergence pattern.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

LTC/USD Analysis: Litecoin Price Declines after Halving

 

On Wednesday, August 2, the planned halving took place in the Litecoin network. Now the reward of miners for each mined block has decreased by 2 times from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. Theoretically, this should make the cryptocurrency more scarce.

On the eve of the halving, experts were bullish. Thus, financier David Cox voiced a forecast about a possible increase in LTC to USD 189.2. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe provided a bolder upside scenario to USD 200. Also positive statements were made by the creator of the Litecoin project Charlie Lee. However, in fact, we see that the LTC/USD rate fell after the halving.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Turns Red While USD/CAD Climbs Higher

GBP/USD is showing bearish signs below 1.2700. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3500 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2700 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is rising steadily from the 1.3400 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3450 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2740 support to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2665 level. A low is formed near 1.2665 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2700.

The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2818 swing high to the 1.2665 low. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near 1.2740.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2818 swing high to the 1.2665 low is also near 1.2740. The next major resistance is near the 1.2800 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2880 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2665. The next major support sits at 1.2650 or 1.2640, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2550.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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USDJPY Analysis: Rate Reaches Max of the Year

 

The uptrend in 2023 is due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. As the chart shows, USD/JPY hit 145.22 yen per US dollar today. The last time such a rate was relevant was in November 2022 after foreign exchange interventions (marked with arrows).

Since the USD/JPY rate has again reached the level of 145 yen per US dollar, which is important for the Japanese authorities, traders expect official warnings regarding interventions, but there are none yet. Reuters reports the words of Joey Chu, head of Asian currency research at HSBC: "We believe that the Treasury will start moving in the 145-148 range."

Bullish arguments:

→ The ability of the exchange rate to recover from a sharp fall in early July indicates the strength of demand in the market.
→ The chart shows that the rate has not yet reached the upper limit of the ascending channel.
→ B→C retracement after A→B advance was less than 50%.
→ Central bank monetary policy differentials are unlikely to change any time soon.

Bearish arguments:

→ Presumably, traders may take profits from long positions, fearing currency interventions, which will slow down the current bullish trend.
→ This morning there was a false breakdown of June-July highs to force sellers to close positions and lure buyers in the wrong direction.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Analysis: The Pound Trying to Grow on News from Labor Market

 

On Tuesday morning data from the UK market were published:

→ base wage rose at a record pace in the second quarter. It was 7.8% higher than a year earlier, representing the highest annual growth rate since 2001.

→ at the same time, the number of unemployed also increased. In July, 29k applications for unemployment benefits were submitted (expected - 19.2).

The first reaction of the pound is growth. It is possible that market participants have increased fears that wage growth will give the Bank of England more grounds for a sharper increase in interest rates. At the same time, the bullish momentum faded quickly, in line with the bearish momentum that has dominated the GBP/USD market since mid-July (as shown by the black line) amid the formation of the SHS pattern.

However, the situation may change.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Extends Losses While USD/CHF Eyes Upside Break

 

EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0000 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.8850 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1040 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.8745 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8760 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1040 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0000 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0970. The bears were able to push the pair below the 1.0900 pivot level. The pair traded as low as 1.0874 and is currently attempting an upside correction.

There was a move above the 1.0900 level. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0920. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0920. The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the1.1065 swing high to the 1.0874 low.

The first major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the1.1065 swing high to the 1.0874 low at 1.0970. An upside break above the 1.0970 level might send the pair toward the 1.1040 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1070 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0900. The next major support is near the 1.0875 level. A downside break below the 1.0875 support could send the pair toward the 1.0800 level.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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XRP/USD Price Rolls Back to Important Support

 

July was marked by the end of the trial between the SEC regulator and Ripple Labs in favor of the latter, which led to a sharp increase in the XRP token to a price above USD 0.9, but then a rollback followed after the first emotional reaction.

By the way, the trial is not completed yet. As it became known, the SEC intends to appeal the court's decision.

Bearish arguments:

→ The price of the XRP token may fall after the SEC formally files an appeal.
→ The price of the XRP token has rolled back by more than 2/3 from the July rapid growth — this is too deep a size for a normal correction.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Signal Negative Trend

 

Gold price is moving lower from the $1,930 resistance. Crude oil price is also declining and showing bearish signs below $80.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the 1,930 resistance and moved lower against the US Dollar.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,895 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are also moving lower below the $80.00 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $80.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $1,930 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,920 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,900 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,885 zone. A low is formed near $1,885 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is now testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,903 swing high to the $1,885 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,895 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,903 swing high to the $1,885 low at $1,900.

An upside break above the $1,900 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,910. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,930 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,885 level. The first major support is near the $1,875 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,875 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,850 support.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

BTC/USD price analysis: The Price of Bitcoin Collapses by about 8% in One Day

 

This morning the BTC/USD price is near 26,500, the lowest price since mid-June.

What is the reason for this? Among the drivers of the decline may be information that Elon Musk's SpaceX company intends to sell (or has already sold) USD 373 million worth of bitcoins. However, the collapse could have been influenced more by technical than by fundamental factors.

On August 8, we wrote that the ADX indicator fell to a minimum since the beginning of the year — that is, the market was in a protracted flat. It was a vulnerable position for the birth of a new impulse.

Note that the USD 30K psychological level acted as resistance in August — the price was not able to stay higher for long. It was logical to assume that the bears would try to take the initiative. And it happened this week — notice the widening bearish candles on August 15-16 as we approach the 28,800 support.

The decline triggered a cascade of stop-losses (more than USD 1 billion worth of positions on cryptocurrency exchanges were liquidated), which intensified the selling wave.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Consolidates While EUR/GBP Takes Hit

 

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2700 resistance. EUR/GBP declined heavily below the 0.8600 and 0.8565 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2700.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8565 pivot level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8545 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair settled below the 1.2800 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound turned red and extended losses below the 1.2700 pivot level against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2620 zone and recently started a recovery wave. There was a decent increase above the 1.2700 pivot level. The pair is now consolidating near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2740.

There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2740. The triangle resistance coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2689 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2740. The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2689 low at 1.2765.

A close above the 1.2765 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2800. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2880.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2700. If there is a downside break below 1.2700, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2665 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2620. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Updates Minimum of the Year against the Background of Rising Yields of US Govt Bonds

 

Treasury yields are rising, especially for long-term periods. For example, the yield on 10-year bonds today is 4.28%, and a month ago it was 3.88%, a year ago, 3.02%. Barron's writes that yields may continue to rise amid sustained inflation.

Rising US government bond yields are attracting investors who are diversifying their portfolios by moving capital away from the gold and equity markets, which is having a bearish effect on them.

So, according to information from MarketWatch, August could be the worst month in 2023 for the S&P 500 index precisely because of rising bond yields.

And according to Bloomberg, at the end of last week, the assets of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in gold approached the level of 2.8 thousand tons, having updated the minimum since March 30, 2020.

Today, as the chart shows, the price of gold has updated the minimum of the year.

Bearish arguments:

→ The price dynamics is developing within the bearish channel, which has been in effect since May.
→ The price has consolidated below the psychological level of 1900 dollars per ounce, from which we can now expect resistance to the price increase.

Bullish arguments:

→ The market is oversold, as evidenced by the daily RSI indicator. Therefore, the probability of a bullish correction increases.

This week, the BRICS summit and the Jackson Hole conference will take place, the news from which can have a significant impact on the price of gold.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EURUSD Analysis: Price is Forming a Rebound from the Support of 1.085

 

From the high of the year, set on July 18 near the level of 1.125, the price of EUR/USD fell in 1 month to the support of 1.085 (-3.4%). Today, the EUR/USD chart shows that the market is forming a rebound from this support, which has been in place since mid-June. What will be the further development?

Bullish arguments:

→ The market is in an uptrend (indicated by the blue channel) in 2023 and its lower boundary, which forms a powerful block of support at the level of 1.085, can help the bounce develop into a meaningful swing.
→ Support may come from SMA (100).

Bearish arguments:

→ The higher the price of EUR/USD rises, the closer the level of 1.095 becomes, which acted as support; but after the pin bar on August 10, the level was broken, and now resistance can be expected from it. If this is indeed the case, the market will form a weak bounce from the block of supports in the 1.085 area — a threatening sign for the current ascending channel.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Production and Supply Down, Prices Down.. or Are They? Where's Next for Brent Crude

 

The world of crude oil trading has long been synonymous with volatility, where prices can swing dramatically in response to a myriad of factors. Currently, the market is once again experiencing a degree of turbulence, underscoring the need for keen analysis and a watchful eye on critical events.

Among these events, the announcement by US authorities of the weekly change in crude oil supply in the United States, scheduled for 21:30 UK time today, holds particular significance.

The announcement of weekly changes in crude oil supply serves as a crucial touchstone for market participants. Last week's figures, revealed on August 18, showcased a substantial 6.19 million barrel reduction compared to the previous week. This revelation underscores the dynamic nature of oil supply and its influence on market sentiment.

Crude oil prices have been closely scrutinised, with the value of Brent Crude oil closing lower than its opening value in recent trading sessions.

Analysts are eyeing several potential factors that could be contributing to this trend. One notable factor is the tapering optimism regarding higher demand in China, which may be impacting global oil consumption projections.

In the most recent New York trading session, Brent Crude oil finished at $84.46 per barrel, marking a 34-cent decline from its opening value. While this represents a decrease, it's important to put this movement in context.

Crossing the $84-per-barrel threshold is still indicative of robust pricing, illustrating the ongoing strength of the market. Comparing this to just over a year and a half ago, when headlines were ablaze with news of oil prices crossing the $70-per-barrel mark, the significant leaps and bounds that have transpired within the industry become apparent.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Eyes Recovery While USD/JPY Corrects Lower

 

EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.0930. USD/JPY is correcting gains and might test the 144.90 support in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0880 support.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY struggled near 146.40 and recently started a downside correction.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 145.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0930 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0910 support zone to enter a bearish zone against the US Dollar as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0890. The pair even settled below the 1.0880 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0832 and the pair is now correcting losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0930 swing high to the 1.0832 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0880. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0930 swing high to the 1.0832 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0910. The main resistance is still near 1.0930. An upside break above 1.0930 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1000.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0830. The next key support is near 1.0800. If there is a downside break below 1.0800, the pair could drop toward 1.0765. The next support is near 1.0750, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Commodity Currencies in Search of a Bottom, the Euro Resumes Its Decline

 

Problems in the Chinese economy and the unexpected decision of the People's Bank of China to cut the base interest rate put pressure on commodity currencies, as China is one of the main trading partners of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. However, this week, we can observe a slowdown in the downward movement in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, which signals a possible start of corrective rollbacks.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair found support just above 0.6300 last week and is currently trying to strengthen above 0.6400. There are no confirmed reversal combinations for bullish movements on higher time frames yet; the nearest area for an upward rollback is the range of 0.6500-0.6600. If bulls fail to strengthen above these marks, the resumption of the downward movement in the direction of 0.6300-0.6200 may occur.

As for fundamental analysis, today at 15:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the number of building permits issued in the US in July; at 16:45 GMT+3, there will be data on the business activity index (PMI) in the service sector for August.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Currencies in Tight Ranges ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

 

Major currency pairs are trading near the previously reached extremes in anticipation of news from the US. The EUR/USD currency pair fell yesterday to 1.0800, but bounced back sharply, the GBP/USD pair tested support at 1.2600, but still remained above the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe, and USD/JPY is retesting the 145 figure. Apparently, investors and market participants are waiting for comments from the head of the Fed about the future monetary policy of the regulator. Tomorrow starts the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, where a report by Jerome Powell will be heard.

USD/JPY

In the US dollar/Japanese yen pair, the reversal bearish bar from August 17 near 145.60 worked out. At the moment, the downward pullback has encountered support at the Alligator lines. If the price holds above 145.00 for several trading sessions, a resumption of growth towards recent highs at 146.50 may occur. But a break of support at 145.00 may mean a deeper correction towards 143.00-141.00.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3 we are waiting for data on basic orders for durable goods in the US for July. Also at the same time, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released. Tomorrow early in the morning traders will pay attention to the core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Price of WTI Oil Falls to August Minimum

 

As the chart shows, US Crude Oil fell below USD 78 yesterday for the first time since July 25. This was facilitated by:

→ fears of a crisis that could follow from the collapse of the Chinese property developer Evergrande;
→ alarming PMI data from different economies. Japan reported a contraction in manufacturing activity for the third month in a row. Business activity in the euro area also fell more than expected, especially in Germany. Business activity in the US in August approached the point of stagnation, while growth was the weakest since February.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Bounces Back after Falling 1% in One Day

 

The publication of news on the UK PMI index yesterday signaled an acceleration of the downturn in business activity. The index value was 42.5 (values below 50 indicate a slowdown in the economy). This is the thirteenth consecutive reading of the index below 50, with readings below 42.5 last recorded during the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

The first reaction to the news was a sharp drop in the GBP/USD rate, but by the end of the trading session, the rate recovered, which can be considered evidence of strong demand.

More bullish arguments are given by the analysis of the volumes of trading in futures for the British pound on the CME exchange:

→ the largest trading volumes for the year were recorded on June 13 (more than 240k contracts were traded at an average of about 100k per day). If you draw a horizontal level from the high of this candle at 1.262, you will see how it acts as support;
→ yesterday, extremely high volumes (more than 155k contracts) were recorded again on a candle with a long lower shadow. That is, high volumes, reflecting the activity of large players, may indicate the relevance of demand for the pound at a price of 1.262.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 21 - 25 August Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVDA SHARE PRICE RISES, WTI OIL GO MINIMUM

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• EUR/USD: Price is forming a rebound from the support of 1.085
• NVDA share price rises after positive report
• The price of WTI oil falls to August minimum
• GBP/USD bounces back after falling 1% in one day

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Struggles To Recover, USD/CAD Holds Support

 

GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.2665. USD/CAD is holding gains above 1.3560 and might start another increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2620 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3640 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2665 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2550 level. A low was formed near 1.2547 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a major bearish trend line at 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low at 1.2665.

A close above the 1.2665 resistance might spark bullish moves. The next major resistance is near the 1.2720 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2800 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2550. The next major support sits at 1.2510 or 1.2500, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2420.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal Downside Continuation

 

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6450 and 0.6430 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.5900 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6480 level against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.5985 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.5945 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6500 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6450 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430. The pair even settled below 0.6430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair is now showing bearish signs and trading near the last swing low at 0.6410.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6390. If there is a downside break below 0.6390, the pair could extend its decline.

The next support could be the 1.618 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6365. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near 0.6430. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6450, above which the price could rise toward 0.6490. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.

A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6620.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/JPY Rate Updates the High of the Year

 

Yesterday, USD/JPY hit 146.74 for the first time since November 2022. The rise in the rate is facilitated by the growing gap in the policies of central banks: while the Bank of Japan has kept the rate below zero since 2016, the Fed has been raising rates since the spring of 2022.

Moreover, on Friday, Powell said the Fed is ready to continue to remain tough in the fight against inflation. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is now a 62% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting, up from 42% a week earlier.

However, the limiting factor for the USD/JPY rate is the power of the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Last year, when the market was at current levels, the authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, lowering the rate to 140 yen per US dollar.

The USD/JPY chart shows that:

→ the price con    tinues to move within the ascending channel;
→ on Friday, during Powell's speech, the median line was tested, confirming its influence as a support;
→ former resistance at 144.8 also provides support;
→ if the trend continues, the rate may reach the upper limit of the channel — that is, the psychological mark of 150 yen per US dollar.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

When Will the Rate Hikes Stop? The Fed Ploughs on at Jackson Hole Despite Economic Progress

 

The United States Federal Reserve's consistent dialogue regarding interest rate increases has captured the attention of economists, policymakers, and financial markets worldwide.

Against the backdrop of a US economy that has shown remarkable resilience over the past two years, discussions surrounding interest rates have become a focal point of speculation and analysis. This article delves into the factors driving the Federal Reserve's decisions, the global context, and the implications for the US Dollar.

Steady US Economy and Debt Dynamics

The US economy's performance over the past two years has been characterised by steady growth and surprising resilience, given the substantial national debt that the country holds. Despite occasional fluctuations and challenges, the overall trajectory has been positive. The ability of the US economy to maintain its stability can be attributed to factors such as robust consumer spending, a strong labour market, and the government's targeted fiscal policies.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Bitcoin Trading Volumes Fell to a Minimum of 4 Years

 

CNBC, citing CryptoQuant agency, reports that:

→ the total volume of bitcoins held on all cryptocurrency exchanges is at its lowest level since 2019;
→ as of August 26, the volume of bitcoin trading on all exchanges was about 130k BTC;
→ a maximum of 3.5 million BTC were traded in 1 day.

Perhaps the decrease in trading volumes is due to a drop in interest due to the uncertainty with the regulation of cryptocurrencies, or the fading of the bullish trend that began from the early days of 2023.

According to JP Morgan analysts, a decrease in open interest may indicate that the price of bitcoin is near a significant low, but the BTC/USD chart suggests that the bearish trend may continue. This is indicated by the descending channel, the outlines of which are becoming clearer.

 

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.