HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 11th July 2024.

Stocks Rise as Analysts Predict Inflation Will Drop to a 5-Month Low.
 

 

• NASDAQ’s most influential stocks witness significant gains on Wednesday including Apple +1.88%, Microsoft +1.46% and Alphabet +1.17%.
• Investors fix their attention on today’s US Inflation rate which analysts expect to fall from 3.3% to 3.1%. Markets predict US Core Inflation to remain at 3.4%.
• KeyBanc Capital Markets raised NVIDIA’s target price from $130 to $180, maintaining the overweight rating.
• Gold increases in value ahead of today’s inflation data and outperforms all currencies.

USA100 (NASDAQ) – Stocks Rise Ahead Of Today’s Inflation Reading!

The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as investors price in a rate cut for September. On Wednesday, the price of the index rose 1.05%, but the bullish price movement will depend on today’s inflation reading. Investors are anticipating a decrease in inflation, but if this expectation is not met, it could result in downward pressure. However, if inflation does decline to 3.1% or lower shareholders are less likely to sell shares ahead of earnings season. As a result, the bullish trend is potentially likely to continue.
 

The September cut scenario has become the main outcome due to the rise in unemployment and the change in the tone of the Federal Reserve. Earlier this week the Fed Chairman said the employment sector is showing signs of weakening while yesterday the Fed Governor advised inflation will reach the target without the Unemployment Rate rising much further. The lower interest rates support the economy but also makes bonds and the US Dollar less attractive.

Only 25% of the NASDAQ’s 100 stocks declined on Wednesday which applied minimal pressure. The bullish price movement was largely driven by the top 8 most influential stocks which all rose in value. These 8 stocks make up 49.08% of the whole index. The only stocks which applied minor pressure were Netflix which fell 1.18% and Intuit, down 2.70%. The two stocks hold a weight of 3.08%.

One of the stocks which have significantly supported the NASDAQ in 2023 and 2024 so far is NVIDIA. According to leading analysts, the company’s quarterly report is set slightly later than its main competitors. This could provide an advantage and an opportunity to improve its performance. KeyBanc Capital Markets have raised the target price from $130 to $180. They attribute this to higher-than-expected demand for GB200 graphics processors, particularly the more expensive NVL72 configuration, which is gaining more interest compared to the previously popular NVL36. Wolfe Research LLC has also adjusted its price target from $125 to $150.

Currently the price is trading within a symmetrical triangle meaning the price shows a lower high but a higher low. Volatility is likely to remain minimal until the US Consumer Price Index. If the Consumer Price Index reads as expected and the price increases, traders should be cautious that profits are not hit, and the price retraces. In the medium to longer term, the price remains above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. This indicates buyers are controlling the market. Based on price action, buy signals are likely to materialize again if the price rises above $20,697.40.

XAUUSD – Gold Gains Momentum, Capitalizing on the Weaker Dollar!

The price of Gold has benefited from the lower price of the US Dollar and the pricing of an interest rate cut by September. The commodity is forming higher highs and higher lows, which is a positive sign, but traders should note retracements are quick and large, meaning caution is wise.
 

Another positive sign is the price of Gold is currently performing better than all other currencies within the market. However, investors will largely be monitoring the US Dollar which is currently declining 0.08%.

A weaker US Dollar has the potential to support the price of gold; however, if inflation falls significantly below current expectations, it may undermine gold’s bullish price action. This is because gold is also used as a hedge against inflation. According to the Fibonacci retracement levels, buy signals will form if the price breaks above the $2,381.62 levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th July 2024.

Market News – The Aftermaths of Inflation.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Treasuries surged after a much cooler than expected CPI report that saw Fed funds futures price in a -25 bp rate cut for September, more than 2 quarter point moves over the rest of the year, and 3 cuts by the end of Q1 2025.
• Australian and New Zealand government bonds rallied, taking cues from their US counterparts.
• European stocks open muted, following a sharp decline in Asian equities driven by a significant drop in technology stocks. Despite this recent downturn, global stocks are on track for their 6th consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since March, buoyed by expectations of Fed easing which have supported overall risk sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street was not as enthused, although it’s coming off of prior strong gains. The NASDAQ slumped -1.95% and the S&P500 slid -0.88% to 5584. Cash fled some of the safety of the mag 7. The Dow was up 0.08%.
• Disappointing earnings from Delta and PepsiCo weighed heavily.
• The Euro Stoxx 50 futures showed minimal change, mirroring the stability seen in US stock futures after a tech-driven selloff on Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex took it on the chin, falling to 104.07 from the high of 104.99 on the dovish Fed outlook.
• A lot of the weakness came from JPY as USDJPY crashed 4-handles, as there were reports of intervention. The Bank of Japan conducted rate checks with traders, reinforcing the belief that authorities had intervened in the market on Thursday to support the currency.
• Oil prices rallied for a 3rd day in a row boosted by the US inflation which cooled broadly in June to the slowest pace since 2021. Bets rose that the Fed will start to reduce borrowing costs this quarter.
• Gold corrects some of yesterday’s gains, back to 2400.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th July 2024.

US Stocks Surge Amid Banking Sector Concerns Over Consumer Demand!
 

 

• US Banks beat earnings expectations but warn of financial stress amongst lower and middle-income consumers over the upcoming months.
• Producer Inflation unexpectedly remains high, but investors opt to take advantage of the lower price.
• Political experts advise Trump’s chances of winning this year’s elections are significantly higher after the recent assassination attempt.
• All currencies indexes decline as the US Dollar attempts to win back some lost ground.

USA100 – Large US Banks Voice Caution As Consumer Demand Falls!

The NASDAQ rose on Friday despite the US inflation data reading higher than what investors would have preferred. According to analysts, investors preferred to take advantage of the lower purchase price and Thursday’s 2.20% decline. Investors potentially may still look to increase exposure in stocks and indices to price in a rate cut and strong earnings data.
 

The Producer Price Index read 0.2% vs 0.1% expectation. Though investors were concerned that the Core Producer Price Index was more than double previous expectations. However, the positive news is that the US inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.0%, the lowest since June 2023. Today investors will focus on the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index which could benefit from a slightly higher reading. In addition to this, the Fed Chairman will speak at 16:00 GMT which may also trigger volatility depending on comments.

None of the earnings reports released Friday were part of the NASDAQ index, but they surely grabbed investors’ attention. JP Morgan, CitiGroup and Wells Fargo all beat earnings and revenue expectations, however, all stocks depreciated in the session that followed. Particularly Wells Fargo which fell more 6.00%.

The main cause was the forward guidance given by all 3 banks regarding the economic conditions in the upcoming months ahead of the elections. Profits at Citi’s US consumer lending division, which encompasses credit cards, plummeted by 74% compared to last year. The bank’s chief financial officer, Mark Mason, noted that consumer spending is generally declining, with account balances now falling below pre-Covid levels. In addition to this, JP advises lower income consumers are likely to struggle over the next 3-4 months.

Nonetheless, in terms of technical analysis, the price of the NASDAQ is again trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades above the 50.00 level which indicates buyers are regaining control of the market. Buy signals are likely to strengthen as the price crosses above the $20,471.10 and $20,552.77 levels.
 

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EURUSD – The Dollar Gains As The Exchange Rate Rises To Previous Resistance Level!

The EURUSD currently trades with an extremely low spread and a bearish price gap. The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.15% higher while the Euro Index is 0.16% lower. However, on the medium-term timeframe the Euro is witnessing significant gains against the Dollar after rising for 3 consecutive weeks. However, this has brought the exchange rate to the previous resistance level of the price range. Therefore, technical analysts are considering whether this may be the point where the EURUSD retraces lower.
 

Currently, the support and breakout level can be seen at 1.08823 and if the price falls below this level potentially can prompt a short-term sell signal. A short-term sell signal potentially can indicate a decline to the 1.08667 level. The Empire State Manufacturing Index this afternoon potentially can support momentum to form a breakout if the index reads higher than current expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th July 2024.

Pound Leads Currencies This Month Despite Upcoming Rate Cut!
 

 

• The Pound continues to be the month’s best performing currency and attempts to break resistance levels as the currency rises close to a 12-month high.
• Goldman Sachs beats earnings and revenue expectations boosting banking stocks. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo stocks increase.
• The Dow Jones outperforms the NASDAQ and SNP500 on Monday. Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar were the best performers.
• Federal Reserve Chairman advises economic growth likely to slow and employment to become more balanced.

GBPUSD – Economists Expect The UK Economy To Perform Better Than Previous Expectations.

The GBPUSD, after increasing in value for 2 consecutive weeks, finds itself close to a 12-month high and closer to its traditional value prior to COVID and PM Truss. The British Pound has been the best performing currency of July and has risen in value against all major currencies. The US Dollar has been one of the worst performing, but traders may also benefit from glancing at the weakest which currently are the NZD and JPY.

Technical analysis in recent days has been pointing towards an upward trend as the price trades above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. Fundamental analysis is also supporting a weaker Dollar as a rate cut becomes certain for September 2024.
 

Though, the price over the past two trading days has struggled to increase above the 1.29897 resistance level. The exchange rate has failed to break this level on 3 attempts and mainly formed a psychological price for investors. However, this will largely depend on today’s US Retail Sales and tomorrow’s UK inflation rate.

Analysts believe the UK inflation rate will fall from 2.00% to 1.9%, which is below the Bank of England’s target. Nevertheless, the regulator will be happy to allow inflation to fall slightly below due to the cost-of-living crisis of the past 3 years. The Bank of England’s rate decision will take place on August 1st, and an interest rate cut will become more likely if inflation falls to 1.9%. Currently, most economists expect a rate adjustment.

A rate cut traditionally is bad for the currency, however, it can make the economy more attractive for foreign investors. However, investors should note, currency traders will simultaneously price in a cut from the Fed. The Chicago Exchange for the first time fully prices in a rate cut for September.

For the US Dollar, the latest developments continue to point towards slower economic growth and unemployment rising slightly higher. Yesterday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index again read lower than expectations. In addition to this, Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, also reaffirmed this is also the Central Bank’s expectations. Whereas the analysts expect the UK economy to rebound faster than previous years. Analysts also note that the US Bond Yields trade 24-points lower, which is known to be negative for the Dollar.

Therefore, many fundamental factors also indicate a GBPUSD bullish trend. However, in the short-term technical analysis will be key. Traders may opt to keep buy trades short term unless strong momentum indicates a break above the key resistance level which is close. However, if a retracement is to continue, price action points towards the retracement falling down to 1.29238.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Outperforms All Indices!

The Dow Jones, which traditionally is less prone to trends, was the best performing index on Monday. Yesterday, it rose to an all-time high after increasing for 3 consecutive weeks. The bullish trend has partially been due to the market pricing in an interest rate cut for September but also earnings data from the banking sector.
 

Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to release their quarterly earnings report. The bank’s earnings were slightly higher than previous expectations, but lower than the previous quarter. Revenue beat Wall Street’s expectations by 2.89%. As a result, stocks from the banking sector rose in value helping the bullish trend of the Dow Jones.

However, investors are concerned regarding comments from key economists and the Fed’s Chairman. The recent forward guidance is lower economic growth and higher unemployment. This can be concerning for the stock market if economic data weakens, and leading companies provide similar guidance. Another concern is that only 55% of the Dow Jones’s 30 stocks rose in value. Though, the 55% that rose saw stronger volatility.

Today UnitedHealth Group will release their earnings report. Currently, analysts believe the earnings will more or less be similar to the previous quarter. UnitedHealth Group is the index’s most influential stock and is likely to create volatility. However, this may also potentially be a retracement, not necessarily a guaranteed upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th July 2024.

Gold Hits New All-Time High as Investors Flee the Dollar!
 

 

• Gold reaches an all-time high as investors look to mitigate away from political risk and a potential economic slowdown.
• UK inflation remains unchanged whereas analysts previously expected a 0.1% decline.
• Economists contemplate whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting.
• All US indices increase in value bar the NASDAQ which fell 0.18%. The SNP500 rises 0.64% and the Dow Jones 1.85%.

XAUUSD – Gold Rises To All-Time High!

Gold rises to an all-time high after increasing in value by almost 2% on Tuesday. Investors are turning to Gold in an attempt to mitigate political risk, interest rate adjustments and also the possibility of weaker economic growth. Weaker economic growth has been mentioned by leading economists over the past week which is prompting higher gold demand.
 

However, the price of Gold did witness an overbought signal on the RSI for the first time this week at $2,472.85 and soon after fell 0.45%. Here we can see how the RSI assisted traders with determining that Gold may have stretched too far. Currently, as the price retraces lower, the price is no longer overbought and still continues to maintain buy signals on the 2-hour timeframe. Though investors will look for bullish momentum to build before speculating in favor for the trend. For example, if breakout signals can be seen at $2,470.95 and $2,472.70 or Fibonacci retracement signals a buy indication at $2,475.00.

A positive factor for Gold is the decline in the US Dollar which currently is trading 0.08% lower this morning. Though, investors would prefer the decline to gain momentum. In addition to this, the pricing of interest rate adjustments is also supporting the value of Gold. According to the CME Exchange, there is a 93% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 7% chance of a 50-basis point cut for September.

A large portion of the demand for Gold in 2024 derives from China and is largely the reason why gold has surged more than 21% so far this year. China will suspend gold supplies, but experts believe the government will continue to import without reporting it. It may indicate an intention to purchase more gold than before, following the trend set by global central banks, which are actively replenishing their reserves. Thus, the National Bank of Poland increased gold volumes by 4.0 tons in June. Additionally, the National Bank of India purchased 9.0 tons, and now the country’s reserves amount to 841.0 tons. Regardless of this, lower interest rates can support Gold and short-term traders will focus on the trend and technical analysis.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Remains Sticky!

The price of GBPUSD has increased in value after the UK inflation remained at 2.00% instead of declining to 1.9%. As a result, economists are contemplating whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting. Previously, investors were leaning more towards a cut in August. Currently investors monitoring price action are evaluating whether the price will rise above the most recent resistance level which has formed a double top.

The price of the US Dollar will also be detrimental to the price movement of the exchange. Currently, the US Dollar Index has fallen 0.12% so far this morning. Throughout the day the Building Permits and Industrial Production will influence the price of the US Dollar. The GBP will now turn its attention to the release of the UK’s Claimant Claims Change and Average Earnings Index.
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th July 2024.

Escalating Tariffs on China Spark a Major Selloff in Tech Stocks!

• Investors expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at 4.25%.
• US confirms new sanctions against China primarily aimed at semiconductors applying significant pressure on Tech Stocks.
• The NASDAQ trades more than 4% lower than its recent highs. Investors reduce their involvement in growth stocks as top economists predict a decline in consumer demand.
• The top 10 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ fell an average of 3.97% on Wednesday. Netflix due to release their earnings report today after market close.

USA100 – Tariffs Intensify Against China Triggering A Tech-Stocks Selloff!

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ fell a total of 2.82% and is trading 4.25% lower than its recent highs. The reason behind the quick selloff is twofold. At first the NASDAQ saw lower demand as leading bankers and economists signalled weaker consumer demand from the lower income portion of the economy. The second is the United States decision to intensify sanctions on chips being sold to China. As a result, the semiconductor sector took a big hit and had a domino effect on the rest of the technology market.



The Semiconductor selloff seen yesterday was the biggest in four years, but investors also should note that at some point a lower price can trigger investors to buy the dip. Though the question remains as to when that is likely to happen. After the market close, in after trading hours, most of the semiconductor sector rose in value, but still remain significantly lower than the open price.

Investor willingness to purchase the dip will also depend on earnings data which will start this evening. Netflix is due to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to rise from $4.54 to $4.76 and for revenue to increase by 25 million. Netflix’s stock fell less than other components during yesterday’s decline which can be perceived as a positive. However, the price action will depend on tonight’s reports.

Investors are only likely to enter at the discounted price if earnings data from the most influential companies beat expectations and cool down concern over consumer demand. The most influential day for earnings will be next Tuesday where Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Tesla and Visa release their reports. Whereas, if earnings are not able to increase demand, the sanctions imposed have the ability to reduce sentiment towards the sector for a prolonged period.

Currently, the price of the NASDAQ trades lower than most Moving Averages and lower than the neutral on the RSI. However, the price is retracing upwards. Therefore, investors will monitor whether the price will attempt a correction or decline further. If the price falls below $19,879.33, momentum indicators are likely to signal a decline, whereas above $20,100 will bring the price above the trend line which can indicate an attempted correction to $20,405.
 

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EURGBP – UK Adds High Number Of Unemployment Claims!

The price of the EURGBP increased in value after the UK’s Claimant Claims rose by 32,300, almost 10,000 more than analysts’ expectations. Over the past two months the UK has added 82,600 more unemployed individuals. As a result, the Bank of England may be more tempted to decrease interest rates at the next meeting but according to analysts this is not yet certain.



Nonetheless, the price has increased 0.11% and risen above the 75-Period Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. If the price rises above 0.84145, the exchange rate potentially will maintain a buy signal. This will also depend on today’s ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 4.25% but are hoping for guidance on when the next cut is likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th July 2024.

Global Stocks Tumble as Risk Appetite Plummets!


US ECONOMY

• The NASDAQ declines for a third straight day and fell to its lowest level for July.
• Netflix Quarterly Earnings Report unable to support US indices. The Dow Jones loses momentum after 6 straight bullish days.
• The US Dollar Index attempts to regain losses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays
• The British Pound comes under pressure from the decline in Retail Sales. However, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be the worst performing currency.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar is losing momentum for two reasons. The first is that the exchange rate is largely being driven by the Dollar which has risen in value across the board. The US Dollar Index is attempting to regain loses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays open. This is partially due to the lower price but also the lower investor sentiment as stocks falls over the past 3 trading days.



The second reason is the poor economic data from the UK which is likely to pressure the Bank of England to adjust interest rates at the next meeting. According to economists a 25-basis point cut at the next meeting is not yet certain. However, a cut will take place either on the 1st of August or September 19th unless something drastic changes. The poor data includes the number of new unemployed individuals which has considerably risen over the past 2 months. This morning, the UK government also confirmed Retail Sales has fallen 1.2% which is double the decline previously expected.

For the US, weekly employment data was released yesterday: the number of Unemployment claims rose by 243,000, exceeding both the forecast of 229,000 and the previous figure of 223,000. Additionally, the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, raising the likelihood of interest rate adjustments in September. According to most analysts, the rate cut for September is fully priced in at around 103.20 for as long as other central banks also adjust.

The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published this week, indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, but businesses expect a slowdown over the next six months due to the US election campaign and consumers struggling with prices. However, the lower risk appetite is triggering higher demand for the Dollar over the past 48 hours. It’s vital investors continue to monitor the US Dollar Index while analysing the GBPUSD.

The price of the exchange is now trading below the 75-Period EMA and below the 50.00 on the RSI. This indicates low sentiment towards the Pound and bearish control for the time being. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a sell signal will arise at the 1.29290 price whereas the breakout level indicates 1.29261. however, if the price rises above 1.29400 or the trendline, short-term sell signals become unlikely.
 

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USA100

The price of the NASDAQ has now fallen for 3 consecutive days but did see less downward momentum compared to Wednesday’s collapse. The index has now fully corrected the gains for the first 2 weeks of the month and is trading close to the previous support level. However, as previously mentioned, due to the higher economic risk, investors will most likely need strong earnings data to be tempted to purchase the discount unless the price becomes even more favourable.



The price of Bond Yields has risen during this morning’s Asian session and the VIX is also trading slightly higher. The VIX this week has already added almost 10% which indicates a significant decline in risk appetite. In addition to this, the poor data from the rest of the world’s leading economies can also damage sentiment towards stocks. Currently the biggest indication for short term upward price movement is the lower price and potential upcoming earnings data.

Netflix has released their earnings report overnight. The company’s earnings read 2.40% higher than expectations at $4.88 and revenue was 3 million higher than expectations. However, the stock is yet to see any major volatility or support. Currently the stock trades 0.18% lower.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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[HFM]

Date: 22nd July 2024.

Market News – Uncertainty remains the bane of the markets!


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• President Biden announced he is withdrawing from the re-election campaign. In a subsequent comment, he stated his support for Kamala Harris. He will address the nation later this week. This throws the Democrat party into more disarray as it heads into its convention from August 19-22.
• These uncertainties will further shake up the markets when trading opens.
• For weeks, investors have speculated about an increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the November election, especially after Biden’s underwhelming debate performance. Now, with Biden exiting the race, investors are reconsidering their strategies regarding a potential Trump victory.
• China’s PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by -10 bps to 1.70% from 1.80% in a surprise move coming out of the Third Plenum.
• Earnings:Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will kick off earnings reports for the “Magnificent Seven” on Tuesday, while major European banks are set to report their earnings this week as well. Analysts will be watching to see if the benefits from higher interest rates are diminishing and how recent political developments are impacting market sentiment.
  Asian & European Open:
• It is a cautious, choppy start to trading in the wake of the news. This negative start to the week mirrored the losses seen on Wall Street on Friday, as businesses globally dealt with a major technology outage.
• Asian stock markets mostly fell after President Joe Biden’s announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has rallied 0.82% but the Nikkei is down -1.3% amid the fallout from Friday’s slump on Wall Street.
• US futures remained relatively stable while European stock futures are higher.
  

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has traded narrowly, but initially dropped to 103.90 versus Friday’s close at 104.396. It is mixed against its G10 peers.
• USDCNY has been jumpy, impacted both by the PBoC’s news as well as the Biden news earlier. The buck rose to 7.2737 in early action before sliding to 7.2706. It has edged back to 7.2730.
• Metals showed mixed results following their worst weekly decline in nearly two years, with a rate cut in China helping to stabilize the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd July 2024.

Market News – Asia stocks up; Yen Strengthens.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Markets paused after recent volatility and a tech selloff driven by high valuations and sector rotation.
• US election developments continue to dominate, with Kamala Harris securing enough pledged delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination, providing some political clarity.
• Asian stocks climbed, driven by gains in chipmakers following a Wall Street rebound ahead of major tech earnings reports.
• Treasury yields fell ahead of economic data releases and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Throughout July, speculation about a September rate cut boosted shorter-term bonds, narrowing their yield gap with longer-term securities.

Asian & European Open:

• US equity futures dipped, and Euro Stoxx 50 contracts rose in anticipation of earnings from Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. later today.
• Nasdaq and S&P500 were both up more than 1%, reversing some of last week’s painful decline.
• The “Magnificent Seven” stocks rose over 2% on Monday, led by Tesla and Nvidia Corp.
• Toyota Motor Corp. plans to repurchase shares from major Japanese banks and insurers as part of a ¥1 trillion buyback plan.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex remains in a ranging market, between 103.90-104.15.
• The Yen appreciated against the US Dollar, as traders adjusted their carry positions during the summer holiday season, with USDJPY breaching 156.20. Some Bank of Japan officials are open to raising rates at the July meeting, though weak consumer spending complicates the decision.
• Oil prices remained steady near a 6-week low as traders awaited new data on market balances and US stockpile forecasts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks dip as earnings disappoint; Yen strengthens further.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• The market faces pressure entering a seasonally weak period, with potential increased volatility due to the upcoming US presidential election.
• Asian stocks and US stock futures also fell, impacted by earnings reports from large American firms like Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc., which were seen as insufficient to sustain the recent global equity rally.
• European stock futures declined as investors evaluated the disappointing initial results from the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech companies.
• The Yen strengthened for the third consecutive day ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Asian & European Open:

• The S&P500 and Dow slipped -0.16% and -0.14%, respectively, and the NASDAQ slid -0.06%. The VIX was down -1.74% to 14.65 and has eased from the 16.52 level on Friday, the highest since April amid rising political risks and anxieties.
• Taiwan’s stock market was closed due to Typhoon Gaemi, meaning shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. did not trade.
• Alphabet shares fell after the company indicated that it would take time to see tangible results from its AI investments.
• Tesla shares dropped as much as 7% following a profit miss and a delay in its Robotaxi event to October. Many of Tesla’s suppliers and electric vehicle peers in Asia also saw declines.
• Deutsche Bank AG reported its first quarterly loss in 4 years due to a slowdown in trading and a charge related to a legacy issue at its Postbank retail unit.
• BNP Paribas SA’s profit increased in the second quarter, driven by a surge in equities trading revenue.
• United Parcel Service Inc. experienced its worst drop ever following a profit miss.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex had found its footing, firming to 104.25 versus 103.90 on Monday.
• The Yen appreciated beyond 155 for the first time since early June as traders anticipated a potential interest rate hike from the BOJ in the coming months, if not at next week’s meeting. According to a Bloomberg survey, around 30% of BOJ watchers expect a rate hike on July 31, but over 90% believe there is a risk of such a move.
• The NZDUSD dropped at 0.5900 to its lowest level in nearly 3 months as lower bond yields discouraged carry trade investors.
• Oil fell -1.45% to $77.26, though managed to edge up from the $76.40 session low. It is a 4th straight decline from $82.85 Wednesday and the weakest since mid-June. Most of week’s selling was on technicals after penetrating 50- and 100-day MA.
• Gold is up to $2418 per ounce. It was at an all-time closing peak of $2469.08 on July 16 amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, US political risks, and the drop in the US Dollar. Of note, India lowered its import duty on gold to 6% from 15% which should support jewelry manufacturing. India is next only to China in terms of consumer demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th July 2024.

Market News – AI mania over? Stocks, Gold & oil dip; Yen Surges.
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Wall Street plunged and Treasuries bear steepened in an anxious trade.
• News that ex-Fed president Dudley was now calling for the FOMC to cut rates next week amid recession fears added to investor angst.
• European stock markets continued to decline alongside Asian equity futures, intensifying a global downturn in technology shares following US session, as investors are pulling back on the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market this year.
• Traders moved away from megacaps to underperforming segments of the market, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and doubts about AI’s immediate payoff.
• Nasdaq experienced its largest single-day drop since 2022, while S&P 500 breaks Its longest run without a 2% drop since 2007.
• The Canadian Dollar dropped as the Bank of Canada cut rates, emphasizing “downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations.”
• The Japanese Yen reached its highest level since May as carry trades unwound.
• Key events today: Germany IFO business climate, US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods.

Asian & European Open:

• Tech led the slump with the NASDAQ dropping -3.64%, the biggest 1-day selloff since March 2020. The S&P500 fell -2.31%. The Dow dropped -1.25%. Disappointing news from Alphabet and Tesla after the bell Tuesday got the bears going and rising concerns over the staying power of AI trades exacerbated declines through the day.
• In Japan, Nikkei entered a technical correction while the broad Topix index, which had reached a record high earlier this month, plunged over 2.5%, erasing its July gains and hitting a five-week low.
• Earning: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to report results next week.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex tumbled to 104.12 in morning action, down from Tuesday’s 104.45, but rallied back slightly to close at 104.37.
• The Yen holds strong thanks to expectations for a BoJ rate hike next Wednesday, with USDJPY breaching 200-day EMA. The USD firmed versus CAD after the BoC’s dovish cut. The USDCAD reached April’s peak at 1.3827.
• Oil prices declined, but are once again trying to stabilize, following API data showing that US crude inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week. Inventories have declined for four straight weeks now. However, weak growth in top importer China and renewed optimism of a ceasefire in the Middle East have kept supply expectations underpinned. WTI is currently trading at USD 77.38 per barrel, Brent at USD 81.49 as markets wait for the official U.S. inventory report.
• Gold is down to $2370 to a two-week low. The downfall could be attributed to some technical selling, though it is expected to be limited, considering the fundamentals, such as Fed’s cut and the risk-off mood which could support Gold ahead of the US data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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[HFM]

Date: 26th July 2024.

The Yen Soars as the Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike Rises!

• The Japanese Yen wins back some lost ground as global Central Banks edge closer to rate cuts.
• The probability of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan increases.
• July’s best performing currencies are the Japanese Yen (+4.35%), British Pound (+1.41%) and the Swiss Franc (+1.41%).
• Currencies are taking advantage of the weaker US Dollar, but the worst performing currency remains the New Zealand Dollar.

USDJPY – Growing Likelihood of a Second BoJ Rate Hike!

The USDJPY increases in value for a third consecutive week and for a fourth consecutive day. Three factors are contributing to the Dollar decline: The Fed’s upcoming interest cut, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike and the political uncertainty in the US. The day’s best performing currency is the Japanese Yen which is currently increasing in value against all currencies.

Currently, the USDJPY is trading below the trend-line and below the 100-Period SMA which indicates in the medium-term sellers are controlling the price actions. The exchange rate is also below the neutral on all oscillators and forms a clear bearish trend price pattern. Currently the only indications pointing towards a loss of bearish momentum is the diversion formed on the RSI. As a result, even though the trend clearly forms downwards, investors need to be cautious of a potential retracement. If the price trades above 152.96, a larger retracement becomes likely. However, if the price falls below 152.015, momentum will indicate the continuation of the downward trend to 151.674 in the short term and 151.267 thereafter.



The likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Japanese regulator is growing. Preliminary data for July showed an increase in business activity, indicating a recovery in the national economy. The consumer price index remains above the target level, reaching 2.8% in June, with the core indicator stabilizing around 2.6%. Officials are optimistic about maintaining these high levels, supported by significant wage increases.

According to Reuters, Bank of Japan officials will discuss the possibility of raising the interest rate at their meeting on July 31st. Analysts do not expect active measures until after the summer months. However, investors will price in the adjustment before the decision takes place.

The US Fed experts may turn to “dovish” rhetoric in September, which puts pressure on the dollar. Currently, inflation is slowing growth, business activity is declining, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling.

The US PMI data from yesterday largely triggered an attempted bullish correction but was viewed as mixed. The price action of the US Dollar and the USDJPY will now largely depend on the Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims. These will be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US economy to grow 2.0%. If the US GDP reading is lower than expectations, the US Dollar potentially can come under pressure. At the same time, weaker earnings data from the US can trigger higher demand for the Japanese Yen. The Yen is known as a safe haven currency alternative to the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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