Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Exchange Rate Has Fallen Below 1.08 Level

 

As the EUR/USD chart today shows, yesterday the rate dropped by 0.46% – the most significant strengthening of the US dollar against the euro in one day this month. Moreover, the rate fell below the psychological mark of 1.08 euros per dollar (in the first half of May, it served as resistance).

Yesterday's movement was influenced by:

→ news of rising inflation in Germany. As reported by Think.ING, inflation reached 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.2% in April – highlighting uncertainty and the resilience of inflation;

→ the rise of the US dollar, driven by falling Treasury bonds, which increased the appeal of the American currency due to both higher yields in the US and demand for safe-haven assets.

Analysing the chart on 23 May in the article "EUR/USD Price Forms Bullish Reversal," we:

→ drew an ascending channel (shown in blue);

→ highlighted the importance of resistance at the 1.0875 level.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nasdaq Index Shows Uncertainty Ahead of PCE Release

 

The main event of the week is the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which the Federal Reserve particularly focuses on when assessing inflation in the US. The release is scheduled for Friday at 15:30 GMT+3. As this important event approaches, rumours and trader expectations about the news increasingly impact the current price on the stock market.

According to ForexFactory, the Core PCE Price Index on a monthly basis is as follows:
→ forecast for Friday = 0.3%.
→ previous value (a month ago) = 0.3%;
→ value two months ago = 0.3%.

These figures indicate stable inflation, but surprises are not ruled out, which could certainly lead to a spike in volatility.

The price of the Nasdaq index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has decreased since the beginning of the week – this may indicate market participants' uncertainty about whether inflation will decrease. Meanwhile, as CNBC reports, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, believes that the Fed should wait for significant progress in combating inflation before lowering interest rates.

In his opinion, rates could potentially even be raised if inflation fails to decrease further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dips While USD/CAD Eyes More Gains

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2680. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for a move above the 1.3690 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3660 support zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3690 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 zone after a decent increase, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The British Pound traded below the 1.2740 support to again move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2710 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2680 level. A low was formed near 1.2680 and the pair is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.

There was a fresh upside above the 1.2710 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2800 swing high to the 1.2680 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2800 swing high to the 1.2680 low at 1.2740 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2740.

The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 1.2770 level. A close above the 1.2770 resistance might spark a decent increase. The next major resistance is near the 1.2800 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2880 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2710. The next major support sits at 1.2680, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2620.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

NIO Shares Surged Over 9% on Sales Growth Expectations

 

As evidenced by the NIO stock price chart, yesterday's trading closed at $4.93, while today the NIO share price is around $5.40, indicating an increase of over 9%.

According to MarketWatch, the rise is driven by expectations that the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer's deliveries are likely to reach record levels.

The existing record was set in July last year when the company achieved monthly sales of 20,462 cars. However, analysts believe this result could be surpassed in May this year due to ongoing discounts on new cars and batteries.

The daily chart of NIO shares today shows that the price is in a long-term downtrend (indicated by the red trend channel) due to the global decline in demand for electric vehicles.

However, there are fundamental reasons to expect that the downward trend will be broken:
→ China is intensifying its efforts to develop electric vehicles – the State Council has presented an action plan for decarbonisation.
→ This month, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 from 4.6% to 5%.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CHF Rate Falls Over 1% After SNB Chief's Statements

 

As evidenced by the USD/CHF chart, yesterday one US dollar was worth 0.913 Swiss francs, but today it is already 0.903, indicating a rate drop of approximately 1%.

According to MT Newswires, the franc's strengthening is attributed to statements by Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan. In his view, an overly weak franc is the most likely source of higher inflation in Switzerland.

Notably, since the beginning of 2024, the Swiss franc has weakened against the US dollar by more than 7%, one of the worst performances among G10 currencies. The exchange rate has formed an ascending trend channel (indicated in blue).

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

WTI Oil Price Unchanged After OPEC+ Meeting

 

The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not have a substantial impact on the price of crude oil. As the chart shows, WTI oil opened today at $76.72 per barrel, while on Friday it closed at $76.57 – indicating that the decision made by oil producers is ambiguous.

The bullish argument is that restrictions on oil production to maintain its price will continue. According to Reuters, on Sunday, OPEC+ members agreed to extend the production cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2025.

The bearish argument is that eight OPEC+ countries have already signalled plans to gradually phase out voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from October 2024 to September 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts overall assessed the results of the meeting as more bearish for the market. "The communication of a gradual unwind reflects a strong desire to bring back production of several members given high spare capacity," they wrote.

The WTI crude oil chart shows that the market is breaking the upward trend (shown in blue), which we mentioned in our review on 10 May.

Since then, bulls attempted to resume the upward trend, but this only resulted in a false breakout of the psychological level of $80 per barrel on 29 May (indicated by an arrow).

Afterwards, bears regained control and sharply pushed the price below the lower boundary of the blue upward channel, making the downward channel (shown in red), which began in April, more relevant.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

MSFT Shares Surge on Record Yearly Volumes

 

On Friday, 31 May, almost 48 million Microsoft shares were traded on the NASDAQ – the highest number since the start of 2024. Meanwhile, the MSFT price chart formed a “hammer” candle:

→ trading opened at $416.75 per MSFT share;
→ mid-session, the price dropped below $406;
→ however, by the end of trading, the price had recovered to $415.13.

Fundamentally, it is difficult to pinpoint a single piece of news that served as the bullish driver. According to Barron's, a significant incentive for investing in MSFT shares should be considered the prospect of high dividend payouts.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds from Decline

 

Yesterday, the PMI Manufacturing indices for several countries were published. The news turned out to be disappointing for the US - according to ForexFactory:
→ Final Manufacturing PMI: actual = 51.3; expected = 50.9; previous value = 50.9;
→ ISM Manufacturing PMI: actual = 48.7; expected = 49.8; previous value = 49.2;

This led to a weakening of the US dollar yesterday, as the not-so-strong manufacturing activity data, as reported by Trading Economics, supported arguments in favor of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.

As a result, currencies of other countries strengthened against the dollar, notably the AUD/USD exchange rate rose above 0.669 - the highest level in 2 weeks.

However, today the US Dollar is rebounding from yesterday's decline - and this is more clearly visible on the AUD/USD chart, indicating potential internal weakness for the Australian dollar.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

European Currencies on Track to Yearly Highs

 

The first summer month saw a sharp rise in European and commodity currencies against the dollar. For instance, the pound/dollar is heading towards 1.2850, while the euro/dollar is set to test a significant resistance level at 1.0960. The surge in volatility at the beginning of the week was made possible thanks to the following events:

• Yesterday at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) the release of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US (48.7 versus a forecast of 49.8);
• Yesterday at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) the publication of the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for the US (57.0 versus a forecast of 60.0).

EUR/USD

Technical analysis of the eur/usd pair indicates the possibility of further growth towards 1.1100-1.1000, provided that the 1.0900 mark remains a support level.

In case of a break below the mentioned support, a test of 1.0880-1.0850 may be possible.

The following news releases may impact the pair's movement:

• Today at 10.20 (GMT +3:00) speech by ECB Governing Council member Eduardo Fernandez-Bollo;
• Today at 10.55 (GMT +3:00) release of the unemployment rate in Germany for May.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Continue Higher

 

AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6700 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6200.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6700 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6645 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is gaining pace above the 0.6145 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6170 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6590 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6630 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6645 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6700 zone. A high was formed near 0.6698 and the pair is now correcting gains.

There was a move below the 0.6670 level. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6590 swing low to the 0.6698 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6645.

The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6590 swing low to the 0.6698 high at 0.6630.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6630 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6590 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6520.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6670. The first major resistance might be 0.6700. An upside break above the 0.6700 resistance might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6720 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6750 resistance zone.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ Forecasts

 

Over the three spring months, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 3.5% – not the worst result, but it might be disappointing considering that in the first two months of the year the index increased by 7.8%.

This trend suggests that:
→ the rally driven by interest in AI is slowing down;
→ stock market participants are concerned that Fed rates will remain high.

What could be the scenarios for future developments until the end of the year and beyond?

The media publish fresh forecasts on the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) price from Wall Street analysts:

→ MarketWatch: Analysts at JP Morgan believe that the growth potential is exhausted and the market may “hit a wall” preventing further growth. They maintain a forecast that the index value at the end of 2024 will be 4200 points.

→ MarketWatch: Experts at Wells Fargo think it would be too optimistic to expect stocks to reach new record highs ahead of the US elections in November; however, further growth related to the election results looks likely in 2025. They estimate the index could reach a record 5700 points by the end of next year.

→ BusinessInsider: According to Capital Economics, the index could rise if Treasury yields fall and the momentum from AI adoption remains strong. Their forecast is 6500 points by the end of 2025, followed by a sharp correction in 2026.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?

 

The stock chart for Adobe Systems shows that on May 31, 2024, the price fell below $440 – for the first time since June 2023. This drop was partly due to increased competition from Canva, which released updated tools.

However, in early June, the decline did not continue, suggesting that ADBE stock is consolidating around a multi-month low.

Since the beginning of the year, ADBE has decreased by approximately 23%, while the NASDAQ index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has increased by more than 12%. Is this indicative of serious problems for the company or is the stock undervalued?

A significant amount of information will come from Adobe Systems' earnings report, which will be released on June 13, 2024. According to Yahoo Finance.

The company's earnings per share are forecasted to be $4.38, representing a 12.02% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Revenue is forecasted at $5.28 billion, a 9.65% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
It is noteworthy that since December 2018, Adobe has consistently exceeded expectations (though this has not always led to a rise in the stock price).

According to TipRanks, the average price target for ADBE stock is $624.83 over the next 12 months, indicating a potential upside of +39.36% from current levels – suggesting that most analysts do not believe the company has deep internal issues, as otherwise they would not be forecasting such price growth.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Price of Silver Is Acting Weaker Than Gold

 

According to Reuters, precious metal prices have risen in the past 1-2 days as Treasury yields have fallen, enhancing metals' appeal as a "safe haven" for investor portfolios.

Currently:
→ Expectations are growing that US interest rate cuts may begin as early as September;
→ Market participants are focusing on non-farm employment data and other US market data, set to be released on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3.

In this context, it is notable that the gold market is clearly stronger than silver.

The XAU/USD chart shows that the price of gold today rose above $2370 per ounce, a high not seen since 23 May, more than 10 days ago.

Meanwhile, the price of silver experienced a decline of over 8% from 29 May to 4 June. Today’s rise appears to be an attempt by bulls to offset this bearish momentum, during which the price of gold remained stable.

 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Price Gains Traction, Crude Oil Price Rises

 

Gold price started a fresh increase above $2,350. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $78.40 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,315 zone against the US Dollar.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $2,368 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $74.30 support.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $73.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

 

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,315 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $2,340.

The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,350 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded as high as $2,385. The price is now consolidating gains near the $2,385 zone and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high at $2,368. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $2,368.

The first major support is near the $2,350 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,350 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,342 support. Immediate resistance is near the $2,385 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,392 level. An upside break above the $2,392 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,420 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Cuts Interest Rate for First Time Since 2019

 

By its decision, the ECB followed the example of the Bank of Canada, which lowered interest rates by 0.25%, as we reported yesterday. Consequently, this trend might continue with the Federal Reserve, marking the development of easing monetary policy cycles in Western economies.

According to ForexFactory:
→ the interest rate had been at 4.50% since September 2023;
→ it was reduced to 4.25%;
→ the reduction was accurately predicted by experts.

According to CNBC:
→ the ECB forecasts inflation at 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025;
→"Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady," stated the ECB Governing Council.

Given that the rate cut was anticipated, the EUR/USD rate hasn't changed significantly today, despite a noticeable spike in volatility.

Analysing the EUR/USD chart on 30 May, we highlighted the importance of the 1.08 level.

Since then, the bulls have shown the ability to bounce off this level and rise to 1.09.

 

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Analytical NVIDIA Stock Forecast for 2024, 2025 – 2030, and Beyond

 

NVIDIA's stock has seen remarkable growth, driven by advancements in AI, data centres, and emerging technologies. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of NVIDIA’s stock outlook for 2024, 2025, and the next decade. Join us as we explore detailed insights into the company’s financial performance, strategic initiatives, and potential in new markets like autonomous driving and the Internet of Things (IoT).

NVIDIA’s Recent Price History

NVIDIA Corporation, founded in 1993, went public in 1999 with an initial share price of $12. Note that, adjusted for the multiple splits NVDA has undergone, this is equivalent to $0.4375—we’ll refer to the split-adjusted price from here.

The company quickly made a name for itself in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market, and its stock saw steady growth through the early 2000s.

Early 2000s to 2015: Building the Foundation

Throughout the 2000s, NVIDIA expanded its product line, targeting both gaming and professional markets. Significant milestones included the release of the GeForce 256 in 1999, often considered the world's first GPU.

The company's stock price rallied in the dot-com bubble, cresting $6 in 2001. After sinking to a low of $0.60 in 2002, NVDA began a long uptrend, peaking at $9.92 in 2007, just before the 2008 financial crisis sent it plummeting back to $1.44. Continuing to expand its presence in the GPU arena over the years, NVIDIA’s stock rebounded, closing 2015 at $8.24.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 3 - 7 June Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold and Silver, MSFT Shares

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• S&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ Forecasts
• The Dollar Continues Range-Bound Trading Ahead of US Employment Data
• The Price of Silver Is Acting Weaker Than Gold
• MSFT Shares Surge on Record Yearly Volumes

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament Elections

 

Investors will begin the week in a state of uncertainty regarding the outlook of Europe's political landscape.

The four-day European Parliament elections concluded on Sunday. According to Reuters, the results showed a significant gain for eurosceptic-nationalists, who have displaced liberals and greens.

Additionally, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament, calling for early legislative elections later this month after losing to Marine Le Pen's far-right party in the European Union elections.

All this puts pressure on the structure of the European Union, weakening the euro's value.

As shown by the EUR/GBP chart, trading on the currency markets opened on Monday around the 0.8465 level—a price not seen since August 2022.

 

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Drops After US Employment Report

 

As per ForexFactory, the Non-Farm Employment Change report revealed an actual increase of 272 thousand jobs (expected = 182k, previous value = 165k).

A robust job market provides further arguments for the Federal Reserve to continue its tight monetary policy. Consequently, the news led to a rise in the dollar index and a decrease in assets denominated in US dollars:
→ Currencies depreciated; for instance, the NZD/USD rate decreased by approximately 1.5%;
→ Cryptocurrencies declined; Bitcoin dropped by roughly 3%;
→ Gold also decreased in price.

The situation worsens for the gold price with the news that China has stopped buying the metal for reserves after doing so for 18 months. According to ING, China's appetite showed signs of weakening in April when the central bank purchased only 60,000 ounces compared to 160,000 ounces in March.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Goldman Sachs Predicts a Rise in Brent Crude Oil Prices

 

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices should increase in the third quarter due to summer fuel demand leading to a “significant” deficit—approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. They forecast that the price of Brent could rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.

This implies an approximate +7% increase from current levels and a continued rise from the low set on 4 June. How realistic is this?

 

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dives While USD/JPY Continues To Rise

 

EUR/USD gained bearish momentum below the 1.0810 support. USD/JPY is rising and might take out the 157.40 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0810 support zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 155.25 and 156.25 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 156.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0900 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0810 support zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even declined below 1.0760 and tested the 1.0720 zone. A low was formed near 1.0719 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low at 1.0760.

 

There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the 1.0780 level.

The main resistance is 1.0810 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low. A clear move above the 1.0810 level could send the pair toward the 1.0860 resistance.

An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0900. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0720.

The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0650. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Index Declines After Labour Market News

 

The British stock index FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) dropped nearly 1% yesterday due to the release of economic data indicating a rise in unemployment.

According to ForexFactory:
→ The Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefit claims) was 50,000 (expected = 10.2k, previous month = 8.4k). This is the highest number since March 2021.
→ The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% compared to the previous value of 4.3%.
However, today the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) chart is showing signs of recovery.

Fundamentally:
→ GDP news did not bring any unpleasant surprises;
→ Weakening in the labour market might prompt the Bank of England to lower the interest rate to stimulate the economy, which should support the stock index.

 

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CAD Retracts from Nearly 2-Month High

 

Yesterday, the USD/CAD exchange rate climbed above 1.3785 for the first time since mid-April.

However, today's USD/CAD chart shows that it failed to consolidate at this peak and has dropped to a weekly low.

These fluctuations might be interpreted as traders positioning themselves ahead of today's critical events. According to ForexFactory:

At 15:30 GMT+3, US inflation data will be released;
At 21:00 GMT+3, the Fed's interest rate decision will be announced;
At 21:30 GMT+3, Powell's press conference will take place.

 

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Inflation Data and Fed Verdict Could Set Dollar's Summer Trend

 

The US currency is gearing up for the most important trading session of the current week, and possibly even the month. Today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May will be released. Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a meeting scheduled today where the base interest rate will be announced, along with the regulator's dot plot forecast for the rest of the year. Considering that last Friday's employment data exceeded forecasts, many investors and experts (according to an FT-Chicago Booth survey) believe that:

• The Fed will reduce rates by only a quarter of a percentage point this year;
• Instead of three cuts, economists and traders are pricing in up to two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Naturally, such hawkish market expectations are likely to support the strengthening of the US currency. However, it should be noted that the dollar is currently at medium- and long-term highs, and the likelihood of a pullback and the formation of reversal patterns is quite high.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Dollar Falls After Inflation Data: Is a Change in Medium-Term Trends on the Horizon?

 

The second consecutive decline in the US core consumer price index caused a sharp drop in the American currency across the board. For instance, the GBP/USD pair rose by 120 points within a couple of hours, attempting to strengthen above 1.2800. The EUR/USD pair closed Monday's “price gap” and tested 1.0850, while the USD/JPY pair briefly traded below 156.00. However, a change in medium-term trends remains highly uncertain. The Fed meeting and the publication of an updated economic forecast by the US regulator allowed the dollar to quickly recover some losses.

From yesterday's Fed statement:

• The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 5.25–5.50%;
• The median forecast by FOMC members suggests one and a half rate cuts for the federal funds rate (compared to three in the March forecast).

From the published data, it can be inferred that the Fed maintains a fairly hawkish stance, which could support buyers of the US currency.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.